NFL Week 13 - Recap of Week 12 and Playoff Picture Update

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There’s still a lot of football to be played, but with each passing week it looks more like an Eagles – Patriots Super Bowl. The Patriots (7-game win streak) took care of the Dolphins in methodical fashion in Foxboro while the Eagles (9-game win streak) blew out the Bears 31-3. The Eagles (+200 to win the NFC) are playing the best football in the league thus far and the Patriots (+100 to win the AFC) have the pedigree, track record, and are looking to sew up home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. But which teams are poised to knock off one of these two favorites?

AFC

The Steelers are really the only team that should frighten Patriots fans at this point. Pittsburgh is also sitting at 9-2 – coming off a 3-pt win over an Aaron Rodgers-less Packers team - and, at the moment, holds the tiebreaker for the No. 1 overall seed. But New England is still the Vegas favorite because of how thoroughly they’ve dominated the matchup in recent years. Including last season’s AFC Championship rout, the Patriots have won 4 straight over the Steelers. The AFC Championship Game will likely feature these two teams again and their Week 15 matchup at Heinz Field will go a long ways toward determining home-field advantage.

The rest of the AFC contenders don’t inspire much confidence. K.C. (6-5) opened the season with a big win at Gillette but have lost 4 out of 5 – including bad losses to the New York Giants and last week, at home, to the Buffalo Bills. Alex Smith was actually making plays down the field early on but that looks like a mirage now as the threw for only 199 yards on Sunday. The Titans (7-4) and Jaguars (7-4) are battling it out for the AFC South but neither seems ready to make a legitimate Super Bowl run. The Jaguars just still do so many Jaguars-esque things (i.e. mistakes) and nobody trusts Blake Bortles. Tennessee’s offense, on paper, should be good but they still struggle to score points at times. Mariota and Co. barely squeaked by the Colts last week in Indy.

The Ravens are hanging around at 6-5, refusing to die as the Ravens are prone to do, but also appear to be a cut below New England and Pittsburgh. They have won 3 of 4, including the Monday Night victory over the Deshaun Watson-less Texans, and are second in the AFC in points allowed. But they just don’t have a lot of offensive weapons that scare you – outside of Joe Flacco’s elite-ness.

NFC

The NFC playoffs should be more interesting. Philly is the team to beat but Minnesota (9-2), Los Angeles (8-3), Carolina (8-3), and New Orleans (8-3) are all hovering.

The Rams had a big win on Sunday over Drew Brees and the Saints. Goff continues to roll (28/43, 354 yards, 2 TDs) and they got just enough balance from Gurley (17 carries, 74 yards) and the running game to keep the (surprisingly competent) New Orleans defense honest. Brees tried to lead a miraculous comeback for the second straight week but fell short against the third-best scoring defense in the NFC. The win kept the Rams atop the NFC West while dropping the Saints into a tie with Carolina.

Speaking of the Panthers, they’ve won 4 in a row, and squeaked by the Jets on Sunday. They couldn’t pass the ball (Newton was held to 11/28, 168 yards, 0 TDs) but McAffrey had a decent day running it and the Jets made some critical mistakes. This Panthers team isn’t as good defensively as the 2015 15-1 squad but McAffrey and Funchess have added some variety to their offense. Hopefully TE Greg Olsen’s foot injury doesn’t keep him out for long.

Which brings us to Minnesota – who won again to stay within a game of Philly for the best-record in the NFC. Nobody wants to play against Case Keenum right now (21/30, 282 yards, 2 TDs) and the Vikings defense is second in the NFC in points allowed. Last week it was the Lions that were carved up by Case – next week we’ll see if the Falcons can knock him off his stride.

Thursday Night Football – Redskins @ Cowboys (-2)

A prime-time battle of two 5-6, NFC East squads desperate to keep their playoff dreams alive. This is an elimination game – whoever loses drops to 5-7 and can kiss their season good-bye. The winner still has a shot at a wild-card berth.

In Dallas, Jason Garrett better be working late this week to cook up something – anything – to get the offense going. The Cowboys have been held to less than 10 points in three straight weeks, which is not good for a team that supposedly has a star QB (Prescott), and star WR (Bryant) and an outstanding offensive line (although Tyron Smith is banged up). If the Cowboys win Thursday, they get the Giants next week and can possibly steady the ship as they wait for Zeke’s return on 12/24 against the Seahawks.

In Washington, their record reflects what the Redskins are – a mediocre football team. Cousins is a good QB and they can put up points but they aren’t juggernauts (8th in points scored in the NFC) and their defense is simply bad – giving up more points than everyone but the Cardinals and 49ers. Yet, if they march into Dallas and pull out a W, they’re 6-6 with easy games left against the Cardinals, Giants, and Broncos. Despite their play thus far, the ‘Skins still have a ton to play for on Thursday.

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