RE: Dear friends and family. Please take a weekend and really investigate block chain investments. You're gonna miss the boat!
I respect your opinion, but the total amount of Tether, what it is used for, the wash-trading, the price floors they attempt to maintain with Tether, and the general fact that most exchanges only have Tether and not fiat as a trading pair, along with Tether being equivalent to 15-20% of the estimated net inflows into crypto have made me a predict that prices will implode and we will see a market cap smaller than when this bull run started, so around the 20-30 billion dollar range. I think most coins will lose nearly 100% of their value and BTC itself will overshoot down past 1000, low triple digits are a possibility.
It's like crypto is stored in the attic of a house, you let people in and they're unaware that they have to leave their money in the basement, and the walls are propped up with Tether, a highly flammable material with unknown properties used to inflate prices through the roof so to speak.
There are going to be many bag-holders, or holders of nothing at all if exchanges simply choose to shut their doors for good and take what crypto they have. Exchanges are not safe, they do not care about you, and they do not operate for the long haul. This is why they have been attempting to exclude US customers and customers from areas with stronger abilities to pursue money-printing activities.
I am optimistic in the ultra-long period for this technology and later iterations of its ability to change the world for the better, but perhaps we are rushing to conclusions if we assume that the Tether scandal and lack of true liquidity at exchanges can weather the flood of people trying to withdraw longer than the fiat system can keep itself propped up. And considering that central banks are just now starting to announce that they are unwinding their positions, this lessens the likelihood that the implosion of fiat will take place sooner than the implosion of crypto prices. Those smart enough to keep crypto close to their persons might have something of worth to hold on to, but it is not a guarantee that governments will not come after them hard if they maintain value against rapidly devaluing fiat currencies.
I can not in good conscious see you write such a letter to people you care about without stating that it is disingenuous if you do not include information on this current impending systemic risk looming over the crypto world while knowing that such a risk exists. If you were unaware of the risk then I hope that you are now aware of the dangers and take the time to read more about the matter. It would shatter their confidence in the crypto world if they were to see such an event play out before their eyes right as they dipped their toes in the water, and they would be hesitant to ever return, even if it ultimately turns out to be a good choice in the future once this event has passed.
Thanks for the comment. I think it's entirely possible that like every bank basically ever that tether took in an asset, gave out certificates for the asset, and then overprinted the certificates and will leave people holding the bag. I don't think that tether at 1.6B is going to be enough to squash crypto valued between 500-830B. besides more competition is coming so 1 failure isn't going to be enough to bring down the whole thing. Or maybe it is and I'm wrong... that's a risk.
I just believe that because so many of the huge volume exchanges, in fact almost all of the biggest, trade only USDT there will be enormous pressure and bottlenecking to fiat exit routes. This might ramp the price of certain pairs up, but drain others without those routes completely. And when people wake up to walls of 80%+ losses they're going to take notice and follow the herd, and all of that is dependent on IF the exchanges can "handle the volume" as they've always claimed. They might just press the big shut it down button like they've chosen to do in the past, after all. The tactics they're employing are certainly slowing the collapse, but I think every day more and more people are wising up and trying to lessen their exposure to the risk, and many are discovering the exchanges simply aren't letting them. Thanks for taking the time to comment on my comment and read it at all, I know wall exchanges aren't the most effective means of communication, but sometimes I feel they are necessary.
I'm always chilling in Discord. Come hang out with 9,000+ other Steemians in there.
@aggroed I read all your post and totally agree with BTS, Steem and EOS being the dreamteam of crypto with magical Dpos systems, created by the brilliant visionary @dan Larimer, and his brilliant devs!
Something I would add to @charitybot thoughts is that after a massive mainstream of crypto that I believe something huge may happen this year, many businesses and people , professionals and any person will start accepting crypto as a means of trusted value, and their will not be a need to change it to fiat. Sure, that many people will want to exchange some or all, but that will be according to it persons judgement.
Hope this thoughts add to this, and as always look forward to your ideas on this.
Regards, @gold84
What exchanges do only trade USDT? I know it can be bought on most exchanges, but from my experience, most trades are paid for with Euros, Bitcoin or Dollars. I'm not sure how the situation is outside Europe, but a lot of exchanges offer easy fiat exit routes for european customers, with minimal fees and decent transaction times.
Hey mate, Binance has USDT.
Sign up to Binance
that's a good disclaimer.
Tethers are to be used as a visual pricing tool when buying other crypto, and must maintain a $1 value to be useful for that purpose. No one should be hodling Tether. And Bitcoin will never fall back to $1000 from here.
You have to understand that there is less than 1% of the people on the planet in crypto right now and if you think of crypto in the early stages like the internet back in the mid 90's then you will understand that there will be hundreds if not thousands of coins or tokens that will come out that will fail. But there will be just as many coins and tokens that will make it in some form or another... Crypto is not going anywhere anytime soon.. it is here to stay and will change everyone's lives just like the internet did and mobile phones have done. If you want to invest in crypto and I recommend everyone to invest at least something, even if it is only $20, just make sure you do your research first and do not invest more then you can afford to lose.. the upsides outweigh the downsides this time. Do not be the person that looks back at this in 10 or 20 years and says only if I had invested something... Go without take away food or quit smoking or drinking or anything else that is a waste of money and use that money to invest in crypto.. even if crypto does not work out for you , your health will thank you in the end.
Yes, but buying into an overbought asset is still getting in at the wrong time. I do not disagree that the future potential is there, but I am not FOMO'ing at these prices, and hope not too many else who have few liquid assets are.