Oversold Extremes - Part 2
5 days ago I wrote that both STEEM and BTS were at oversold extremes on the daily charts, and showing strength on the hourly charts. Well, if you thought they were at oversold extremes then, wait until you see them now!
STEEM has lost another 50% of its value in these last 5 days, BitShares has held up comparatively well, only losing 20%, and there’s absolutely nothing that looks good on any of their charts, regardless of time frame, other than intermediate term horizontal support and the extreme oversold readings.
And if you don't want to get too depressed, don't compare with 20 days ago when BitShares was worth double what it is now, or with a month and a half ago when STEEM was still double its current value and still looking strong before failing a rally attempt.
I’ve been buying on the way down, but now I’m out of dry powder - I used the last of my BitUSD to buy more BTS last night to bring its weighting up to STEEM's - so now you can call me an official BTS and STEEM bagholder.
If selling into strength and buying weakness is good, then I’m doing very well right now. Sell when everyone is euphoric and talking riches, and buy when everyone is desperate and talking losses. Buy low and sell high. Okay, I’ve followed the rules; now let’s see if it pays off. 😎
P.S. This thread is not open to moaning, whining and crying - it's only open to people who are buying and holding. If you've sold at a loss, please go somewhere else with your story - don't worry, there are millions of places to wallow in your sorrow - it's just that this isn't one of them because here we're positive in the midst of trading doom. TIA
Read the "The Dos and Don’ts" here if you're not aware of my rules.
It’s true. The only question remains “when is Low or when is High?” I love your optimism, perhaps because I’m thinking the same way. I have been adding to my portfolio on the way down as well, however I’m still expecting the market to go even lower. If we do I will use all of my fiat that I put aside to invest in crypto including BTS, which I’m interested in thanks to you. I’m still waiting for this famous panic selling when everyone starts thinking “it’s the end of the world, it will go to zero” even I could think that. I’ve learned that since these crashes in 2000 and 2008. There was this unique opportunity. I hope we are getting close now, because this waiting is frustrating. In investing there is one thing guaranteed “Patience!”.
LOL
If only any of us knew! So true. And that's why we buy on the way down. After all, low and high are also relative. 😅 My optimism is really based almost entirely on the underlying fundamentals though. In my opinion, it's not IF, but WHEN STEEM and BTS go to the moon. It's the simple fact that they are severely undervalued on a relative basis while at the same time actually producing value as viable businesses over and above being the secure, widely distributed and decentralized almost immediate means of exchange and store of value that it is. The more I see and the more I know about these two projects, the more I'm in the million to billion camp!
I feel the same. I'd like to point out the recent bitshares worker proposal which got approved. It contains very valuable informations about where BTS is heading.
The most important in my eyes is the upcoming development of "trustless gateways" and "confidential transactions", they would bring true decentralization and true privacy. Two things that initially brang a lot of people into the cryptoworld
If you sold BTS or STEEM (for a reason other than needing the money) you should have your mouth washed out with soap.
These are two tokens to HODL no matter what the pricing action does. It is amazing how FUD influences things @cryptographic. My morning post was about some of the headlines that I found last night which the MSM did not really tout. There is a lot going on with blockchain and the crypto world. Yet the MSM, majoring in FUD, did not highlight these points.
In the end, we are going to see these two tokens move up in a dramatic way. It might require us seeing lower levels before that happens. It is sad really but that is why, unless being a trader, ignore pricing action. Ultimately, it tells nothing that is going on.
I would say you'd better have your head checked. 😂
https://steemit.com/hero/@stan/the-million-to-billion-club
For sensible people only. 😎
We could argue the same thing now as well. I think it all depends where your mind is at. Your thinking buying lows could mean for someone too expensive and still wait for even lower prices. You definately have to have a plan. When you buy and when you sell. Also you should not invest any capital you can’t afford to loose. If you do, your emotions get involved at any sell off and I can guarantee, you mostly loose. There are people taking loans, selling houses to buy crypto. Unfortunately they bought when there was euphoric buying at high. Now they are forced to sell, because they have to pay off their loans, it’s the same as with the stock market. You are allowed to buy on margins where you need only about 30% of entire investment. However, if the market starts to sell, you are forced to sell as well and if you don’t sell they will sell it for you. Either way, the market has to get rid of these buyers, it sounds unfair, taugh and emotionless, but that’s what any market is “unfair, taugh and emotionless”. I’m a buyer of BTS at these levels as well, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we go much lower. Now we should sit and chill. We are in this all together.
Keeping things in perspective is extremely important, I agree, and I thank you for pointing that out in the very real world terms that you do. It's one of the main reasons why I am pro-regulation in this industry, although that only helps reduce the fraud, and not the bad decision making. Nevertheless, transparency and legal compliance at least help move things in a fairer direction. The rest is cultural.
Buy low and sell high, yea the number 1 rule. I think we've more than enough lows for the past 2 months, we just hope to see that we made the right deal. I haven't really considered bts for reason which i still don't understand. Maybe i should buy little of it and add to my portfolio.
Believe me @crytographic we haven't seen the end of this dip yet, we are going to see it go very low and that would be the perfect time to get all in
Everyone is pretty much in agreement that we could see lower lows, and it's possible. However, at some point the odds of higher highs also grow. It's a probabilities game short term. Long term I think it is the biggest bull market the world has ever seen, especially in key high quality, extremely undervalued issues.
@cryptographic thanks for the post. I'm in a similar situation: spent all fiat, but the difference that I haven't liquidated Sys coin and Cardano, when you did that in January. If you would be holding a portfolio like
40% ADA
30% STEEM
15% BTS
15% SYS
Would you consider to rebalance it now in order to increase holdings of STEEM and BTS?
I know your position on SYS and Cardano, but I'd like to understand whether you believe rebalancing in the current market is a good idea?
P.S. I totally understand you are not here to give professional advice, just wanted to hear your thoughts on the case.
It's always a good time to reblance, and always a bad time to try and outguess the market.
From a technical standpoint, SYS has held up quite well on a relative basis . . . until the last few days . . .
ADA has taken a long hard steady hit, and it the most overvalued of the group.
BTS is the most undervalued, has the highest potential rewards IMO, and just so happens to be one of the laggards of your weighting. In so far as SYS goes, I haven't been in touch, so I don't know if there's been any meaningful movement towards their PoS masternode conversion. ???
How would I reblance? You know my opinions and what I've actually done, so it will come as no surprise if I say I would lighten up on ADA and increase my BTS holdings, right? Less surprising if I end like I started by saying that trying to outguess the market will kill you? Sometimes you've just got to hold your nose and do it . . . for better or worse. 😮
How is SYS doing BTW?
Thanks, and please forgive me for unabashedly advertise my buy low and sell high method here on Steemit once again. 😉
Hey @cryptographic. I wouldn't say I know much regarding their progress, but today SYS got listed on Binance, which already pumped the price +30%. I believe this listing means SYS is doing well.
I'm almost exactly in your position, out of dry powder, but confident my bags will turn out to be golden. Don't really care if it takes a long time or it skyrockets very soon. I'm extremely confident that blockchain technology is still just in very early stages, the big growth is yet to come.
Difference is my bags are a bit smaller then yours.
I'm definitely with you in thinking that the big growth is yet to come, especially with the big winners like BTS and STEEM that the future holds!
Great spot for an add in both. STEEM is currently testing the bottom support of the wedge pattern, which can be concerning but on the flip side, it's a great opportunity to buy.
From a technical standpoint, BTS's chart looks slightly better than STEEM - but both are generally doing the same thing. I really admire your trading style and wish I could have positioned myself to do the same. Unfortunately, I allocated 100% early and will just have to patiently wait out this accumulation period.
Very sharp analysis. BTS's chart is slightly better than STEEM's in my opinion too. Oh and look at that momentary break of the lower wedge on STEEM! Regained in no time. Looking like a stop run to me. We shall see. It's broken a second downtrend. Let's see if we hold a backtest and resume higher.
@cryptographic,
When STEEM at $7 margin I decided to sell 60% of my STEEM investment and converted it to USD! Today I am glad to say, what I did at that day helped me to feel relax with this price drop!
Anyway, it's not a strategy for every time! But in every DIP I started buy BTS! So far it goes well!
And also I am collecting SP right now! Because, I believe with SMT, SP will be the most precious thing on this amazing blockchain! So now I am working on it!
As you said, I hate to compare my crypto investments with previous weeks! We all know we are in a high fluctuation market place! So, profit loss can't be guaranteed!
But having more than one investment portfolio everything can be easy to manage! Specially STEEM and BTS, those are the future of all blockchains! So we must prepare for that future! And this is the second best time to prepare for it!
(First best time was gone when STEEM at $0.8)
Cheers~
Wow, that was a nice trade at $7. It's paid off handsomely. I'm happy for you. Great job!
I have two let's say quotes to share at this moment that your post made me think about:
and
It was surprising indeed to see the market losing so much value these days, I remember that once Steem used to be traded for 8 dollars, but I know that it will go up again, I just don't know when :)
This is a long term hold, without a doubt. I agree 100%
It does seem pretty crazy but the market can sometimes be irrational. Right not everything is following Bitcoin lower. However. as the clouds clear up, I believe that correlations between the assets in Crypto will begin to diverge and price will be based mostly by merit on the individual asset. Although there will also be some correlation due to regulatory news, the beat technology and assets will outperform. Given Steem and others are proven to be better given the scaling and adoption metrics, we will see the gains again. I have been buying Steem on the way down and powering up immediately as a long term investment in mysef and the platform.
Join the club!
And we're going to be one rich bunch one of these days.