The myth of Tulip Mania

Every year new tulip cultivars enter the market. Before these exist in the very large quantities the market demands there is only a small amount of the new cross breed, just a few cubic meters.

To stay relevant in the market those who've supplied new breeds are expected to continue to provide them. Skipping a year would be disastrous.

Would you attempt to buy those bulbs you would have to pay at least what the company is worth. These are usually highly successful family business with owners who have enough money to retire but in stead get up at 5 am to farm bulbs! Because that is what my family does!

To have any hope at all buying something people are not willing to sell you would have to absurdly overbid. Maybe 10-20 times the value would be convincing (to slap a number on it)

Say our hypothetical company (if they would try to sell it) would bring in 300 million. If you would want to buy those few boxes of next years bulbs you would have to bid billions! Say 4 for laughs.

If we compare this to the "mania" height when the rarest tulip cost 5500 guilders (the value of a good house) Today similar houses would cost 400 000 Euro. I don't know if first attempts at new cross breeds would be in samples of 10 000. It seems a lot. (10 000 X 400 000 = 4 billion)

The moral of the story is that if you want the most expensive bulb in 2017 it is going to cost you a lot more than it did in 1636.

That is, assuming anyone is willing to sell. I've asked some farmers, they say "its not for sale". I ask: "not for any amount?" They say, "do I look like I need more money???". (They do not)