Prepare for lower payouts as the Steem reward pool is approaching equilibrium
The first two days of Hardfork 19 has been a bonanza for authors and curators alike. However, it seemed clear that things were too good to be true - and they were. If we look back at pending payouts, we can see that minnows have gained massively, while top authors took major cuts worth over a thousand dollars. But shortly after HF19, it was not just minnows, even popular authors were making more money from new posts. I have an explanation for why. My numbers may be off completely, please feel free to correct.
During the HF18 era, the reward_balance had exceeded the reward pool for some reason, sitting at 1.69 million right before HF19. Meanwhile, reward pool generated for 30 days is approx. 1.44 million. (75% of inflation)
Right after HF19 went through, the reward_balance is being expended at a faster rate, presumably to achieve equilibrium with the 1.44 million reward pool. Currently, reward_balance is down to 1.52 million, which means 0.17 million has been slashed off in the first 2 days of HF19. That would suggest that within the next day or so, reward_balance will finally equal the reward pool generated.
I don't know what happens when reward_balance matches the reward pool. Does it go down further before bouncing back up? Or does it level off for a stable reward pool?
Either way, enjoy your rewards while they last, things will be going down by a factor of 2-3 very soon (as that is how much extra SP and SBDs were paid out last couple of days). Minnows can still rejoice - your rewards and influence will still be way up from pre-HF18 days.
Sources for this info -
https://steemdb.com/api/funds
https://steemd.com/
Back to reality. Thank you for enlightenment about steem reward pool!
this reality is now upon us.
Getting prepared for Equilibrium!
And those payments for posts that are already charged yesterday and today - will they also decrease?
Good question! I would guess not as that would once again mean the reward_balance would be too high, but let's see.
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Hi, yes.. I've seen that, of course, we minnows had such great rewards for the posts made just before the HF, but I see more fairness even when the votes are less and the payouts are in minor force, for example, some art post that had bad luck in the past, around 0.50$ now can be 5$ even if is little, give us encourage to keep working hard for better content :)
It's a free market, create content if you love it, think of your earnings as a bonus. Never expect large rewards, that's the best way to avoid disappointment. Engage with the community, make friends, that's a good way to increase your follower base and thus rewards.
but i already quit my job, and with the way i left, i dont think they will re-hire me :S
Quitting your job for an internet experiment? You have no one to blame but yourself :)
believe!
Lol. Gotta upvote that ;)
Thanks for sharing this info. As a minnow, I'm pretty happy about my ability to upvote still, even if the payout is less. Good to know. :)
Your votes are worth way more relative to before 20th June and will continue to be so!
yay! I love being able to make a bigger contribution to the community. :) Lots of great content out there.
@liberosist thanks so much for your insightful posts, i appreciate it. I'm following you, won't you please hop over to my page when you have a moment?
thanks for the write up
The payouts on my posts went up and now they are decreasing. Is this the reason?
That's probably due to the fluctuation in Steem price, it's been down last couple of days.
Well thought out... I was expecting things to equalize over the first couple of days, but it may take a bit longer.
It seemed to take some time after HF18 for things to normalize except they were lower initially with that HF!
Looks like it never really normalized during HF18, but it's happening now.
i guess, about a month...
Yeah, but only a day or two more, I hope.