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RE: Steem Economic Changes Update
Isn't a reduction of the power down time going to increase the sell pressure even more? Why would whales who were still powering down even at a price as low as 10c / STEEM (which suggests they aren't having much faith in the project and trying to get as much out as possible as soon as possible) suddenly turn around when they now have the opportunity to exit in as little as 3 months? With the power down period reduced 8x, you would need the number of whales powering down to be reduced 8x too just to keep the same sell pressure as today.
The solution isn't to restrict selling, but to increase the demand for buying.
If you are locked in a cage you cannot wait to get out. Remove the lock and all of a sudden you feel comfortable.
Now look at it from the perspective of someone looking to get in the cage. They are more likely to enter if they are not afraid of getting trapped.
Also don't think of individual whales, but massive numbers of smaller minnows and dolphins.
The way to increase demand for buying is simple: reduce price.
Changing the Power Down rules is an ex post facto action which economically harms those who have already Powered Up in reliance on the two-year period because it impairs the obligation of contract. As explained in the whitepaper, there are reasons for the two year period of reduced liquidity (a characterstic of the good bought) in exchange for greater influence on the platform.
Ironically, decreasing the Power Down time requirement also decreases the trust and confidence people have in Steem and the decision of whether to Power Up because the three month period can or likely will just be removed altogether as soon as it is beneficial to those who have the ability to do so.
So, why not wait until that happens? Thus, there will likely just be more potential investors sitting on the sidelines until Steem proves worthy of investment by being attractively priced and trustworthy in terms of the good they are buying.
I agree, a price reduction would increase demand without decreasing confidence. When you reduce the confidence as this move does then no one is going to Power Up. I think the platform from a technical standpoint has a future, but when I see the founders Powering Down and changing the rules to make their Power Down even more efficient, it begins to effect my confidence. So now I'm Powering Down when I never intended to do it.
In addition I do not know what Steem Power represents anymore. Apparently it's a contract which can always be changed on a whim, so there is no economic certainty about what my Steem Power will be worth in the future or what it currently is worth. So by Powering Down ASAP I reduce my own uncertainty.
This must be your first rodeo with Dan, otherwise you would have expected this to happen after a few months. ;)
I've interacted with Dan under a different alias from Bitshares. I understand how he operates and he is a very talented hard working developer. That said, we know certain decisions with Bitshares were controversial (the merger?).
I accept that Steem at this point in time is an experiment. It is the first of it's kind and we can only learn through trial and error. I just hope Dan and Ned are not wrong in these decisions because it's not just money at stake but also perception.
First. glad to see you back. Second. you said rodeo :P
@fuzzyvest
and this is where I make a Mom joke AFK. :b
You are contradicting yourself there, you say you want a price reduction but then say that you are upset that the founders are selling.
You know what affects investors's confidence is basically a few accounts controlling the vast majority of the VESTs in this platform. The more the power is spread, the more the platform will be decentralized and resistant to abuse, that's what investors want and the founders selling just accellerates the process to get there.
The fact that you are powering down now indicates to me that you lack economics understandings of this platform. Many whales have stopped powering down after this announcement which was predictable ( I actually called it in my previous posts)
You are acting out of emotional feelings not rational thinking.
I'm not upset the founders are selling. I'm upset about changing the function and nature of Steem Power to the point where no one can tell us what it represents or why it matters. This changes the whitepaper explanation and makes all previous explanations worthless. Steem Power used to be influence, and people who would buy it used to represent people who had so much faith in Steem that they either are willing to risk losing their money, or their time, with the belief that Steem Power will develop enough utility in terms of a power up that the utility on the Steem Platform itself will be worth more than the utility of the money they put into it.
For example if I buy WoW gold and power up an account, it's because I know what I can buy with it in the game and what I can do with it in the game. I don't buy WoW gold merely to hold it and sell it later for $ but I buy it as a power up for the game to power up my character. Steem Power no longer represents what it used to represent and I can't know what it is now. I can know at some point in time it's worth some amount in dollars but like with WoW, the players of WoW who truly enjoy the game don't care what WoW gold or items their character has is worth in $ because they enjoy the game.
Risk management. It's less risk to get certain value than to gamble. Why should I gamble if I didn't want to speculate with my Steem Power? But now that people can Power Down at a faster rate, and I'm not going to get the interest I thought I could get, it's now a gamble and too much risk to stay in Steem Power. This is not emotional, this is risk reduction.
I admit, when Steem was fun, or when the focus is on making Steem Power of utility in Steem, then yes I could become irrational and that is the whole point of a game. People don't play games to be rational but they play it to have fun. When it's all about speculation and appealing to speculators, now it's all about being rational and it's no fun. We can't do very much with Steem Power, except power it down. It's not our fault if the developers didn't give it enough utility.
There was an agreed upon formula for the spread of power. Now the formula is changing even before there is much utility for that power. So why do I want power in a game which isn't currently fun and the developers aren't focused on making fun? If the focus was on making it fun for people who have more SP then I would think different but right now the focus seems to be on bringing fun to speculators powering down, so what do you expect?
The people who power down get to trade crypto currencies and have fun doing that. The people who hold SP get to do what? Curate? But that matters why? That is fun why?
Well I don't know, why did you power up up until now?
I don't know, you tell me. Why are you here? why have you powered up? what did you expect?
What do you propose to make it more fun? Steem power are locked in a contract and that gives you voting rights. This design is very restrictive to any kind of game someone wants to create.
Steem the currency would actually be best suited to created Wow gold/linden dollar type currency as SP can't be transfered.
SP wasn't mean to be liquid, or a currency, in the original whitepaper. I powered up in the hope of long term success and in the hope that others would power up after I did. When confidence decreases or when I don't know why anyone should power up then I start powering down.
Friends lists, groups, subscriptions, gamification, and less of a focus on how much money each person has.
"In addition I do not know what Steem Power represents anymore. Apparently it's a contract which can always be changed on a whim, so there is no economic certainty about what my Steem Power will be worth in the future or what it currently is worth. So by Powering Down ASAP I reduce my own uncertainty."
Something tells me you have powered up a bit. I agree. This is going to make alot of people question how stable steem is to build on...
I agree with nearly everything I have read you say @dana-edwards. I honestly dont see why steem would spike from someone buying and powering up on this news. Me thinks it be a bit of a rare coincidence...and that guy/gal will likely be quite angry then they see this change to steempower.
Let people build on steem and stop worrying about the other stuff. Steem and steempower work! Or see my other post if you must do something like this, only include the scale where everyone can choose what level of steempower they want to have.
It's a tax on Steem Power holders because the interest is being reduced. I understand the need to reward bloggers and curators but it's really hard not to perceive of it as a tax and a tax on the wrong people in my opinion.
In any case will it raise demand? I have my doubts that any quick fix or economic band aid will raise demand. I think raising demand takes months of iterative improvement in UX/UI and features.
This is not true, when people see a price go from $4 back to $0.1 they ask themselves what is wrong with the platform. And it is easily verifiable by looking at the daily volume of steem which kept going down regardless.
The way to increase demand and confidence is an increased price of steem which means an increase of the capacity of the platform to handle more users.
Steem power is not what gives you influence in the system. What gives you influence is the % of the total steem supply that you have, so steem is your influence and steem power is steem.
Powering your steem is just a necessary process to participate and curate, but it doesn't give you any financial benefit and never did.
Why should you care if people power up or not? Do you care if people are selling their bitcoin?
Many here have this idea that you need to lock people for 2 years to keep them involved in the platform long term, this is a misconception. If you want people to stick around,participate and invest long term all you have to do is make their investment slowly grow overtime and create a viable model. ( The current hyperinflated model is not sustainable as it creates a constant downward pressure on the steem price which means a pressure on the rewards of this platform)
100% agree with this. However, I am inclined to say that providing various "steempower levels" might for powering up and down might be a very helpful way to let people choose their own risk profile for having their funds locked away. Little changes during beta (especially when only adding options) are ok. Huge economic changes (as @tracemayer says above)---please no. It will definitely cause more uncertainty and only frustrate people who have already bought and powered up steem under a perceived contract.
So why not instead allow Bob to choose between 3 plans for "powering up"?
Give plan number 3 the extra benefit of letting them power down at a % as opposed to the binary choice Plans 1 and 2 get.
In this way, you let the market decide which steempower realm it wants to be in. I guarantee there are many people out there who would hold some steempower with Plan 1 if they need to be able to have access to the money at some point in time in the future. Or Plan 2 could be interesting to some who are a bit more interested in making this more of a way of life.
Then as a user I can choose (as opposed to having this stuck on me without a choice).
The price declining with STEEM is the fair way to let this settle itself. If whales sell to the point that steem is driven to $.001 you will just see more whales who power up. But let me ask you... but if they are secretly building amazing things with their powering down, might they drive the demand up without decreasing price? ;)
Some whales are doing precisely that with the help of friends.
P.S. Please dan do not do this. It has nothing to do with your idea not being good as much as it has with the idea coming after I have seen some pretty big buying and powering up spikes from people coming in. Changing the contract causes too many problems. Just add options. Don't take them away.
As we can see from this example, 2 year power down or any (non-liquidity) or economic rules can and will be changed when the majority of stakeholders find it economically convenient. This means we cannot take seriously any current or future rule set in Steem code which governs any economic aspect of Steem. This means all signs and signals on our accounts such as $ amounts or "wealth" which can be considered an outcome of a current figment of code, can be changed at any given time in the future so can we really say we know what anything is worth when it's held in a smart contract?
The point here is, until it reaches your bank account it doesn't exist because it's not wealth but merely a projection of possible wealth if the code to make it possible doesn't get changed. I'm not in favor of changing the economic rules which I agreed upon when I powered up because I was convinced to power up by an entirely different narrative, as a way to gain influence on a social platform, not as a way to make a quick profit, speculate, or receive an ROI. I didn't know what Steem Power would be worth or if it would be worth anything, and now I accept we can never know what our Steem Power will be worth in the future because there can be code changes which change the economics and as a result change our calculations about how much our Steem Power may be worth.
On one hand we can Power Down much faster and this allows us to rush for the exits but at the same time I see this move as like yelling fire in a burning building. Yes if you create more exits people can get out much faster and less people will have heart feelings, but then when people do get out there is no reason for new people to want to get in when they know it's so trivial to get out and that at any time Steem Power can just be made totally liquid, or even be made so people can sell it to each other. I have no idea how to sell the concept of Steem Power right now because I don't know what Steem Power is or what value it has due to this move.
If it's influence then not being able to Power Down quickly is proof of long term interest. It reveals confidence. When that is lost, there is no evidence anyone is confident in the future of Steem in any measurable way. As a result I'm in Power Down because if I don't do it now I might not be able to get even a few $ out after a few months. I hope I'm wrong but I expect and predict that everyone rational is going to Power Down in a rush to exit and get whatever value out they can before the next person takes it and I see no alternative to this scenario when it's a 3 month period.
How is this going to be any different than now?
Hmm..so you suggest people buying steem power should be driven by ideology instead of money, this is a flawed business strategy. Investors are essential to bootstrap the platform and keep it running and these investors are only interested about ROI.
This doesn't reveal confidence in any meaningfull way, what reveals confidence is an open system where everyone can cash out anytime but nobody does.
Why do you assume that people will rush to the exit? Do you not think the concept of steem is interesting and has potential? What you implied with this statement is that the only reason steem isn't dead yet is because people's money is locked, do you not think steem is attractive to people for reasons other than " IM TRAPPED, CANT GET OUT"
When people are playing games, they aren't motivated by ROI. No one is upgrading accounts in order to get more ROI. People upgrade accounts because it makes the game more fun to them so no I'm not saying it's ideology, but it's about fun and entertainment.
Steem doesn't and will never be safe enough to attract real investors. Crypto traders are more like gamblers. You can gamble enough as it is just posting and curating on Steem so why do you need this?
Because it's not being treated as a game. So now it goes into an entirely different mindset. Who is going to take the risk if the founders are Powering Down and confidence is low? I mean no one is really going to be there to Power Up in the future that I can see and who wants to hold the bag? When you start moving toward an investor narrative and focus only on making money then you will make people behave in different ways than how gamers or chatters or bloggers typically behave.
If you can get for example $10,000 if you Power Down immediately, vs the risk of waiting for Dan and Ned to power down, wouldn't you take what you can within the 3 months if you see the biggest holders doing it? And when Steem Power has a value which now is not concrete or we don't even know what it is, why would anyone want it?
Tell me what Steem Power is and why I should not power down? Try.
If the goal is to cash out at some point then apparently people aren't confident in the value of Steem Power. They are perhaps confident Steem Power will be worth something in dollars but that is not the same! When people start talking about never wanting to cash out or enjoying the benefits of having a lot of Steem Power that is when you know there is confidence but right now that doesn't exist and may be gone after these changes. If Steem Power is a power up in a game, but people only want to acquire it to sell it for fiat, well what does that do for the fun of the game? It's like WoW has people in China farming for WoW gold, but these players aren't having fun.
The summary, Steem is not fun enough anymore for people to want to not Power Down even when they might not even need the money. Steem speculators aren't playing games or focused on fun.
I get your point. But nobody cares about power in a platform that has no rewards, what makes this thing innovative and power something people want is the money aspect.
I understand what you are saying and agree with pretty much everything but as I said the rewards on this platform have been going downhill for the last couple months and users have left as rewards went down.
You are not going to be able to compete with facebook and the likes just because you have games on the site, most of these sites already have games anyway, the innovation here is the money aspect so it is very important that these rewards are steady.
My point is that money isn't and has never been the only possible reward. Money is what people get when they sell their rewards but Steem Dollars and Steem tokens aren't money.
Facebook isn't competition so the aim shouldn't be to compete with Facebook. Steem doesn't need a billion users to be a success. 50 million users would be a success.
It never was to begin with. If you read the whitepaper there is no mention of SP being some kind of in game currency.
However I agree that the gaming aspect is interesting but this doesn't mean it can't coexist with speculation. Speculation exists in every succesfull business , what do you think stocks are?
SP was never marketed as a currency and Steem was marketed as a social media game.
There are many other expressions of confidence in the Steem economy.
Dude, of course STEEM changes and hardforks quickly and efficiently with just a shareholder vote. It's what a DAC is designed to do. If u want to change the rules, then u need to get more skin into this game man. Minnows don't have a majority vote yet, but someday....and the quicker that day comes.....feel it?....yup, this change helps bring it faster if whales can dump entire positions into minnow schools.
Imagine waking up tomorrow and finding out that all the whales dumped, and suddenly you are one of the bigger fish in the sea.Then nobody could be jelous of whales. This change brings hope that more whales will dump into my buy orders to make me a dolphin
These are the types of changes that give people like tone vays a foot to stand on. Perception and word of mouth is everything. Advertising does nothing compared to it. What will the new whales who have bought into steempower heavily pass around through word of mouth. And how much positive advertising and effort will they put into bashing a platform you are working hard to put value into.
These types of changes are so dangerous...because it literally guts the earlier contract and leaves very little left. Dan please learn from history on this one man. Instead of taking options away--add them.
Exactly and this is what we mean by UX, User experience. Steem and Bitshares both suffer from poor UX even with some of the best technology in the industry.
Adding options rather than taking them away is all about perception. In addition, people who agreed to the old terms of the Steem Power now get to get out in 3 months? If we simply let these people live with their choice and add new choices for new power ups then I would be happy with that.