Beaten HF21 and blue

in #steem5 years ago

The prettiest sounding word in the Finnish language is Sininen. It means blue. Finnish is generally a horrible sounding language that sounds a bit like I would imagine a chainsaw cutting through a live elephant and getting stuck on a bone would sound - With the elephant being a serious cigar smoking, whiskey drinker.

This has very little to do with this post.

@whatsup asked in a post a few hours back what people plan to change if HF21 goes through and I have a pretty boring response, nothing much.

While I am planning to pull stake out of @ocdb (some for sure) so that I have more downvoting power, y other activities aren't going to change much at all because, I want to be able to evaluate the changes made.

As I said on her blog, one of the arguments consistently put forward (and I agree) is that bundling changes into one Hardfork means that it is hard to work out what has changed what. However, every hardfork requires a lot of work for exchanges and the like so it is understandable that they are also rarer, meaning more packed into them. This creates more potential for failure too, but hopefully the witnesses on the testnet are doing their jobs well and preparing for in case they haven't too.

But, this hardfork would bring in the SPS and the EIP.

The SPS is a longburn move that is going to take quite a lot of time to be able to judge its effectiveness as it first has to take proposals, build and deliver proposals and then, see how they perform. There are likely to be many proposals, many attemts and somethings will fail and some will succeed. Some will fail because they are bad ideas, some are good ideas poorly executed and some are good ideas executed at the wrong time. Some will succeed because they are good ideas, good ideas well executed or bad ideas poorly executed but have the luck of good timing. Regardless of it all, it will take time to see if the SPS will perform well.

The EIP on the other hand will be an immediate change in the system that should affect behaviour in many ways. It is the grouping of three core elements - convergent curve, 50/50 and downvoting and due to the relationship between these things, they need to be introduced together. If introduced separately, they are all bound to fail.

People should imagine them like organs in a body, the heart pumps blood and the lungs absorb oxygen but neither is much use alone. The combination of the three components creates a lot of complexities and will also bring in new problems to face, like any good change does. Overall, I am hopeful they will make a difference to active user experience.

But, it is because of this complexity that I am not going to be changing much of my behavior immediately because while I am not a fan of bundling components into experiments but understand why this is done, I can monitor how the hardfork affects me. While this seems selfish, it is actually what everyone does as the main point of contention is always, how do the changes impact on my actions, beliefs, likes, dislikes and potential to earn. It is all selfish.

However, I am the only one who has control (sometimes not even me) over my own actions which means I have the opportunity to see what I do now and how it is affected after the hardfork. This way I can then make an informed decision based on my own performance about what changes I might want to make in my own behavior.

Do I vote comments in the same way? Do I keep stake in or buy votes from @ocdb? Do I start selfvoting? Do I automate my vote? Do I care when I vote on content? Do I aim for curation more?

One thing I do know and I have mentioned before is, everyone with stake is better off after Hardfork21 and the EIP because everyone will have access to 25% more of the pool. Sure, the SPS takes some of that, but of whatever is left, everyone has more control over. Control in the positive through upvotes, control in the negative through downvotes.

People should always remember that the pool is based on stake and while some don't want to downvote because quality is subjective, the bidbots have taken away active eyes and subjectivity. If I buy a vote on my own crap content, that is not the community's subjectivity making the call on where that portion of the pool goes. However, because there is so much blind voting stake drawing from the pool (There is something like 40 million SP in bots. that is 20% of the powered up stake but since Steemit accounts mostly don't vote, it is more like 40% of the active stake. I don't know the actual figures).

What I think I am going to do is have a look at the votes on posts and make a worth judgment if it has bought votes on it as all of that stake is coming out of the pool. If it is organic looking voting, it is the subjectivity of the crowd (I will downvote spam, plagiarism and repeated shit consistently) and won't downvote. At least that is what I am thinking now.

At these prices, there are very few posts that should have 100, 200, 300 SBD on them from a "content" perspective and you will probably see the ones that should because of the other people who vote on it. Those that are buying much too highly are likely going to get their payouts trimmed and with so little (about 10%) margin in it, it doesn't take much to incur a large loss. That should change buying behavior and changing demand affects supply, and changing supply affects demand.

Will this all work? I have no idea but the difference isn't going to be in how much Steem each person gets, it will be in whether the price of Steem increases significantly and sustainably over time. I am not looking for a steem pump, I am working for a Steem economy. While the EIP hopefully changes user behavior for the better, the SPS will hopefully change the platform for the better. Combined, they might help us all.

This is all an experiment however which means that no one is completely sure how it is going to work in the short-term, let alone how it will affect the ecosystem one or five years from now. And because nothing is perfect, in the long-term there will be more changes to improve what has been done, or fix what was broken. Those arguing over the details have to eventually come to the point that Steem is always evolving and, always in a state of flux and what harms today might be a huge benefit tomorrow.

The main concern everyone has with any change on Steem is generally the same:

Do I get more, or do I get less?

That will likely depend on your behavior now, and always.

Sininen, Sininen, Sininen.
A bit of beauty in a sea of ugly, or a little ugly in a beautiful sea.

Taraz
[ a Steem original ]

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I believe this will be quite a "shitshow downvote battle" in the first 2-4 weeks, combined with angry posts about somebody downvoting their content to zero because they disagree on opinions...
But once the dust has settled and people go back to calmness and understanding that the game has changed now, I hope it will be great long term.

I believe this will be quite a "shitshow downvote battle" in the first 2-4 weeks,

Remember the hours and days after hf20? Not too many people concerned with RCs now, plenty more looking to see how they could be used later though.

I reckon you are right, shitshow to adjustment.

I don't agree that not many people are concerned with RC now, but you are right, the dust has settled after hf20 quite fast. Maybe 2 weeks of complaining about the worst implementation ever and now silence.

RC is actually quite an issue for new people not wanting to put a hundred bucks in this platform first. (because they have so little and need to wait quite a lot for being able to post and comment on a continuous basis which sucks and drives them off en masse)

I think the RC issues are getting cleared up through applications, not on Steem. The delegation pools need to happen for them though.

Def plan on pulling all of my delegations to bid bots and go on a downvote spree. Also going to try and upvote content I want to see more off. Of course you'll be seeing more love, but I still want to support some weaker accounts

I think quite a few will do this, more once the downvotes start landing on vote buyers.

I think I'd just like it to happen now and get it over and done with!

!ENGAGE 100

Hey most excellent, thank-you, I'm enjoying my steem-engine tokens ATM (now there IS a possible double meaning, but don't worry I'm hodling).

This might also interest you...

Screenshot 2019-06-25 at 05.26.29.png

Compared to the rewards above!

At least they're above if you're reading this in PALNET, if you're on a regular Steem front end they're the same!

Yep, it is interesting to see the difference. What is also interesting is how many of the larger "organic" steem earners don't get that much on PAL. As I see it, the people who are actually organic and have built a strong network seem to get simlarly or even more on PAL as they have engaged and active curators.

I agree.
Fork, fork, fork!!! :D

oh.. test a little first please witnesses.

Here are your ENGAGE tokens!

To view or trade ENGAGE go to steem-engine.com.

Yeah, I don’t really plan on changing much. Business as usual. If I see something isn’t working anymore than I’ll adjust but I’m going to leave the smart technical changes to people other than me. Not like I have much of a say anyway. Lol

If I see something isn’t working anymore than I’ll adjust

I think it will be partly self-evident what needs to change and, plenty of people doing the analyses.

Hei Taraz, ja anteeksi paskan kuuloisesta kielestämme, mutta onneksi sinulla on kyky löytää kauneutta rumistakin asioista :)

=D
No niin, ei hätä. Ainakin naisten ovat kauniita.

Ainakin naisten ovat kauniita.

Totta!

Finnish is generally a horrible sounding language that sounds a bit like I would imagine a chainsaw cutting through a live elephant and getting stuck on a bone would sound - With the elephant being a serious cigar smoking, whiskey drinker.

If anyone ever tells you that you don’t know how to write, point them to this sentence.

Hah hah!

Taraz has been in a grumpy mood for a couple of days now. :)

I also find that eloquently put, BTW.

Seriously, though, a lot of non-speakers of Finnish have described it as sounding somewhat like Japanese. As a native speaker, it's hard for me to judge accurately how it sounds like but I've found Korean to be a good match, too. No, the two languages are not related in any way. Korean is an isolate.

THere are definite similiarites with japanese and despite some of the sounds, Japanese weirdly do a pretty good job of learning Finnish from what I have seen. Also, there are some cultural similarities. I don't know much about Korean, but I have always found the people fun.

What's similar to Japanese is the variation in vowel length and a strong tendency for emphasis to be on the first syllable. Diphtongues are less frequent in Japanese, however, than in Standard Finnish (not in Ostrobothnia, though, which makes Ostrobothnian stereotypical male figures in sketches sound like samurai in Kurosawa's films.) Korean has consonant clusters but Korean has sibilants in them way more frequently (pretty rare in Finnish).

I think the main cultural similarities between Japan and Finland are that silence is well-tolerated in both cultures. Both tend to emphasize group consensus Finland being less authoritarian, though.

I think there is also a similarity in the focus of attention on one particular thing at a time. I think this is also why Finns can be very talented .. or alcoholics :D

Alcohol use is highly concentrated in this country. 10% of the people drink 50% of all alcohol.

!ENGAGE 100

Here are your ENGAGE tokens!

To view or trade ENGAGE go to steem-engine.com.

Taraz has been in a grumpy mood for a couple of days now. :)

He might get triggered of what I'm about to propose as the solution, but I will do it anyway...

I think he should get some sleep.

If anyone ever tells you that you don’t know how to write, point them to this sentence.

It will likely be my only entry on Brainyquote. =)

Hello
I appreciate your frank and honest prediction that people will in general adjust their behavior to what they think is beneficial to them.
I think your right.
I personally plan just a few changes:
Increase my comment votes from 3 to 4 cents in general, so the 50% clears the dust threshold, I will start giving 100% votes when I am one of the first to vote on a new post, I am considering giving 100% upvotes on the first comment on my posts instead of upvoting my own posts as an economic incentive for myself and those who comment on my post.

PS
I plan to use the speak feature on my phone to see if Finnish sounds like Japanese.

I appreciate your frank and honest prediction that people will in general adjust their behavior to what they think is beneficial to them.

I don't know what everyone is going to do, but I think a few will change at least and that will lead to more.

Not sure yet what is the best plan for anyone, which is pretty cool :)

I copied the Finnish comment to your post and the reply, pasted them into a Finnish to Japanese translator and then hit the speak but to hear them both spoken.

8137ED1A-D013-4C33-8BC3-ED607A9E0B54.jpeg

Here’s the link: https://www.bing.com/search?q=translate%20finnish%20to%20japanese&qs=n&form=QBRE&pc=APPL&sp=-1&pq=translate%20finnish%20to%20japanese&sc=1-29&sk=&cvid=D6F629AADCF745ACBF58668430CEDAEC

I am not a musician nor am I a linguist, but I think Taraz your right, there were similarities 🌞

The Japanese seem to like the Moomins as well :)

Yeah. While I have very little hope that EIP will improveanything, I now just hope that people will realize that quickly and we'll move on to something better. Therefore, it actually does make sense to change behavior so as to "prove" how bad of an idea these changes are :-D

In any case, the price of Steem isn't gonna crash any time soon (nor do I think it will move up due to EIP), so I'm more bullish then ever on throwing as much SP as possible at some bots and enjoying my share of the curation ride.

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Yep, gonna be an interesting one. Not so shure about the bot path yet.

Let's wait and see. I don't see how EIP is gonna improve on the bots, but maybe (hopefully!) I'm wrong and we've got awesome times ahead!

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I think that with a few flags, it will change the behavior of the buyers, then the bot model will have to change to attract the same amount of purchase to return to delegators.

I’m not doing anything differently because I never try to optimize rewards anyway. I’m curious to see what’s to come though.

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The "different" for me is not so much about optimization (I never have really optimized my own resources here - too much hassle) but I am looking at changing toward the reallocation model through downvotes though.

I had a lot of ideas to point out in this comment but I will just leave it at this, based on the failure of all past Hard Forks I am fairly positive this one also will be a flop.

Failure? here you are posting on the Steem blockchain, they haven't failed yet ;)

It also depends on what you are using to measure it, HF20 cut down spam significantly. HF19 did exactly what it was meant to do, then people gamed it with bidbots. They are the only 2 I have been a part of in the 2.5 years on the platform I think.

Oh yes they have, failure means that what was aimed for didn't happen and in no hard fork has the goal been met.
And come on, spam was cut because there are less users so the spammers went where there are more people to spam, Steemit became a not so good for spam land, as for people gamed it and bid bots appeared seems like a failure to me.

no, spam was cut by 80 percent in the first week of HF. I think @themarkymark did a post on it.

Was a little over 80% reduction of posts from users on my blacklist weeks after HF20.

yep, that is what I thought and, those "nice post" comments are few and far between since.

Well that isn't strange I remember I couldn't post either so it wasn't really the hard fork running away spammers it was a badly implemented concept that stopped a lot of people from posting, of course this included spammers.

ok... yet you are still here. Spammers?

Of course I am an actual user and I still use Steemit, but a lot of users left after that hard fork and that is one reason for less spam, because obviously there are less people to spam. If user numbers grow spammers will be back, it just comes with the territory you can't fix that. It is like bid bots, as long as big accounts delegate to them they are here to stay.

These people are in a cult man, somehow making it impossible for new people to get started here without paying is good, because it cut back on "hello friend" spam, thats just crazy. Two whales are spamming the shit out the place and no one can do anything but we cut off some guy from India fom making 10 cents.
What is the hardfork going to do to stop @animalcontrol from spamming the blockchain with impunity? The idea 50/50 or SMT's are going to save this place while the whole system is broken is laughable. I will not invest one penny because I would be buying steem from a spammer, or Ned or some other premine asshole. No one is dealing with the real issues of steem because all the witnesses are profitting from the current set up.