Steem Daily Forecast 11-07-2017
Steemit Daily Stats (Monday, June 10th, 2017)
Price
Posts
Daily Payouts (USD)
Macro Events
Over the course of the day and yesterday, Bitcoin has lost lost 300 dollars in value falling from 2500 usd to as low as 2182. At press time, the price has recovered to just over 2300 usd representing a 0.8% loss on the day.
Should the price of Alt coins remain the same, the losses in Bitcoin equate proportionately in USD terms to the loss in value of alts.
However, fear of losses on paper has exacerbated the decline of alts relative to Bitcoin and we have seen a mass exodus in the alt market with some crashing as much as 30%.
Market Makers in both altcoins and Bitcoin are now well into fiat preservation mode and will attempt to balance their portfolio with cash, taking much of the profits off the table.
With such stunning growth in the last few months, there remains much room to continue taking profits and the real pain has yet to begin.
Segwit2x, BIP148, BIP141 and other scaling groups remain in deadlock over how Bitcoin should implement segwit. The uncertainty surrounding the scaling debate means the fear and uncertainty is being accounted for in the price of Bitcoin.
Technicals
As predicted yesterday, the price has fallen to the previous monthly pivot of ~ 45,000 sats. If you were lucky to have bought in the marked green box yesterday, then today you would be in a happy position.
The market makers for STEEM will continue to evade the level marked by the GREEN box whilst consolidating their positions for a potential bull trap rally forming the right shoulder.
Price will bounce between ~45,000 sats and 51,000 sats most likely for a few days.
A break and close below 40,000 sats would almost trigger sell offs to 25,000 sats, accelerating the decline of STEEM price and begin several months of bearish trend.
Once enough people have capitulated, especially larger holders, STEEM will be ready to return to bullishness and make fresh attempts at new highs.
In the short run, I expect side ways downwards bias between 45,000 and 51,000 before a complacency bull trap pump to atleast 55,000, possibly 60,000.
Overall, the crypto markets remain in dangerous waters. STEEM and many other mid-high market cap coins continue to couple themselves to the price of Bitcoin. There is no clear safe hedge apart from going to cash. This reality means more profit taking over the coming weeks.
As always be mindful of the Bitcoin price. STEEM/USD is a synthetic pair with no active markets. This is why all of my analysis is conducted with respect to STEEM/BTC. A sharp fall in BTC price will mean a sharper fall in STEEM price in terms of USD.
Steem daily forecast is updated daily. Format is yet to be set in stone. Please upvote follow and resteem
~Bateman
Thank you for this post. What I am hearing you say is that STEEM as well as all crypto, especially Bitcoin are about to go through a stage of human fear which will trigger profit taking over the next few months. And 25000 sats? That is scary. And when enough people have done that and the bear trend slows and halts, we will see a rise again. I hope I read that all correctly. But I have been taught that in technical analysis drops are sharp as it is fear based. And rises a slow and steady as it takes money (like it takes gravity to go up. And along the way there will be indifference (flat lining).
Hey on a more minor question do you think it is possible that with the price plunge yesterday, steemit accounts with steem dollars converting to into steem may be taken from members as an emergency measure? This happened to me and a few people I talked to . I wrote a very careful thread to try and seek answers, The details of my question is in this thread if you have a moment to check it out. I'll look forward into your insight :) Upvoted
https://steemit.com/steemit/@yoda1917/steem-dollars-in-conversion-to-steem-were-taken-to-rescue-rewards-pool
The drops are fast yes. Often drops can wipe out months of gains in just a few minutes.
The system is not managed by anybody. There is no situation where the system will "take" money from people converting steem dollars to STEEM. The system calculates the value of the STEEM over a 3.5 day moving average. From the moment you start converting. If the market has an aggressive down move, then your average conversion price may be a little higher than current market price and thus be a slight loss. Do not assume that "someone" is taking your money however because that is simply not the case.
I did not think so. But I am just puzzled to how it really disappeared. Unless it is not meant to be visible during conversions