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RE: How SBD could replace BTC: an Unconventional yet Possible Scenario
I get your point. But don't agree wit it competely.
Nov-dec 2017 was the rise of paid upvote bots with SBD as the only paying option. So the transaction demand lifted SBD mcap to 40M approximetely. Then STEEM rose and SBD token mass began to grow significantly. All the time maitaining mcap at 40-50M range, with price steadily declining. Then upbotes get STEEM paying option and SBD mcap fell to 20-30M where it is right now roughly. So the whole story was a simple transactional demand for a scarse token.
My vision is SBD return to 1 usd range. With steem economy transacting mostly in STEEM tokens as in such a condition the whole system is less volatile and any economy tend to reach its less volatile state.
I really don't think the upvote bots have anything to do with it. In any transaction, one party buys what the other sells. Prices go up when demand is higher than supply. That's not caused by people sending SBDs to bid bots, because there's not even a trade involved there, it's rather like a "gift" where wallet X sends SBDs to wallet Y.
What really drives prices up or down, are the external markets. Because the SBD market cap is quite small, and so is its trade volume, any whale is able to pump its price by simply buying all open sell orders on an exchange. If you have a look at the current SBD sell positions of SBD on Bittrex, then you'll find it only takes a few million USD to buy all open sell orders, which will cause a gigantic price lift, which will trigger other bots to further increase its market cap.
And if you would read my article ( https://steemit.com/steemit/@scipio/how-sbd-could-replace-btc-an-unconventional-yet-possible-scenario ) and the comments underneath, you'll get my point on what's really happening in reality, regardless of the original intentions with SBD to be USD pegged.