RE: GAMER Buyback System is LIVE
Inspired by the interesting question by @cryptopassion, I did some basic checking on what is happening behind the scene. Simple math, the house has been cashing out 160k and distributed dividend 26k in total, 26/160= 16%. A mere 16% of the profit was distributed instead of 70% as claimed by the house. I'm certainly not sure how this is being calculated. Nor I'm sure how the div is working behind the scene. Say the total gain of house is 100 STEEM today, is the system automatically put 70 STEEM in the dividend pool?(Don't think it work this way) Or is it another way round?
My calculation is surely rough but I think when the deviation is this big, we all get the idea what I was talking about. The numbers do not make the house's generous statement look good at this point.
Simply dividing 26/160=16% is not the right way to do your "basic" checking. Most of that 160k profits were even before dividends were started. If you really want to check, first check the profits before the dividends were started. After that, calculate the total wagered amount and the total winning amount after dividends were started. To simply make you understand, suppose a person lost 10 bets of 400 steem = 4000 steem in a day in blackjack. The real house profit is 4000 steem for that day but the dividend is calculated as per the house edge (0.5% for blackjack). So only 20 steem is added to the dividend pool. Now, if another person wins 10 bets of 400 steem = 4000 steem in a day. In that case, Even though the net profit for that day is 0, a total of 40 steem is added to the dividend pool as the total wagered amount was 8000 steem. This method of dividend distribution was chosen to give the token holders a steady stream of income even if the house makes a loss. If you think that dividend distribution should be done on the basis of actual profits, then that is a matter of discussion. But if you falsely accuse the house by just dividing 2 numbers without any logic, then we are sorry as we cannot help you out.
I'm sorry Kryptogames but these numbers show clearly that your method of calculation for dividends is not at the advantage of holders but at your advantage. If the dividends would have been based on the real profits, perhaps we wouldn't have received a dividend everyday but at the end we would have received 4X more as dividend.
And again I'm not agree with you that most of the amount has been generated before the dividend. The payments of the dividend started May 5th : See that post :https://steemit.com/gambling/@cryptoeater/kryptogamers-4731-steem-dividends-on-first-day-663-steem-claimed
And you can see yourself, 2 of the 3 withdrawals (100k STEEM) have been done well after that the payment of dividend has been put in place. And even on the first withdrawal of 60k STEEM, a part of it has been paid as dividend because past wagered amounts have been taken into account and have been paid as dividend in 1 shot May 5th, this is why on the printscreen the amount paid is so big, because it is the sum of all the days not paid before you put in place the payment May 5th.
So yeah I have 3 questions for you :
@cryptoeater @lexilee @proof-of-work @broncnutz @virus707 @luckystrikes @abrockman @mentalhealthguru @khaleelkazi @trydice @bluesniper @freegon @superlotto @quuu @cryptoknight12 @zzings @holoz0r @seohyungoo @glastar @mini.supporter
You are the TOP20 GAMER token holders, what do you think about all this topic and the possibility to calculate dividends based on the real profits of this casino instead of having it based on the pessimist house edge percentage.
For you information, I'm also in the TOP20, my tokens are just not staked because in the current conditions, I'm thinking to sell them all to invest in other projects more profitable.
I would prefer whatever leads to long-term sustainability. The only reason the house always wins is because they play every game.
I'm staked to be the house.
I traded a large quantity of steemmonster cards for my current position in kryptogamers, and took a chance on the tokens.
I'm in a significantly worse position than what I was had I held the steemmonster cards, but I took a chance.
I had no real expectations, and at the end of the day its just (digital) tokens.
Would I be sad if I got more each day I hit "claim" - No.
The long term upside of HODLING the token is that as more are burned (and as distribution slows down) - the portion of rewards you get relative to the tokens you hold should increase, if volume stays the same.
Like with all things, there's a spike when it is first released and its new, shiny, and everyone wants to play, experiment, and see what they can do.
I'm not about to dump my tokens on the open market, but I'm not about to buy more either. :) Doing so would change the definition of HODL.
I got sucked into this game under the false pretense that it was "provably fair". I know what REAL BlackJack "feels" like. This is not that and I have now decided that to spite the guy who got me into this by promoting the game in his posts ( @vlemon ) I am going to continue playing until I lose all 1,500 Steem I had when I got sucked into this. I just spent the past five hours playing blackjack and have hit maybe ONE or TWO series of 2+ wins. That is NOT in line with REAL Blackjack. I am IRATE over the fact that I got sucked into this, and in rebellion I'm just going to say "FUCK THESE COINS" (as the 1,500 Steem is now "dirty money" as far as I'm concerned) either run it down to ZERO or back up to 1,500. I'm never touching another online gambling app ( blockchain or not ) ever again. In one will I will probably lose a YEAR worth of Steem earned from my posting...
Clarification: For checking your wallet almost daily I can say you that the withdrawals done after 5th May are profits done after 5th May as you only let each time between 20 and 30k of STEEM after each withdrawals on your wallet. So we won't fight about this point but I'm not agree with you.... sorry
Q1 & Q2: Ok let's say no one can predict the results but numbers are showing you are too much pessimist to only take into account the house edge as profit for the dividends ;)
Q3 : I let you raise that question to your community (because it is your project after all) but do you think really token holders won't agree to receive more as dividend ?
Because in all the cases, as you said it yourself, the minimum earning for the casino at the long term will be always the house edge, but it is the MINIMUM and this is what you are using to calculate now the dividends for the holders.
=> So we have no risk at all to have a calculation based on the real profit, just the risk to have more dividends. The only negative point will be that some days we won't have anything, but other days will bring much more STEEM and at the end, we will have for sure more dividends. It is just mathematic. If you are fair in your explanations, I have no doubt at all the token owners will go for this new way of calculation of the dividends... The only negative point is that you will earn less at short term but consider also that it should increase the value of your token and I suppose you have many of them aside ;)
Finally, we can see some intersection between our points. Just one point which needs to be added is that there is NO guarantee of income from the second model as we have had long streaks of loss days and the house edge is not MINIMUM earnings because in dice, as said earlier, we have not earned even the house-edge ("MINIMUM" as you call it) if you sum it up until now. To sum it up, we can think about the changes in the dividend model if the community agrees. Also, with the kind of low volumes right now, it would not make a difference if we switch to either of the dividend model because there would be no dividends without any volume. So our target would be to atleast achieve some sustainable volume before deciding any changes.
@kryptogames
I’m not accusing, I was just assume that was the way how you determine the div. So it seems like the div wasn’t based on profit but on total wagered amount. I would like to confirm with one more scenerio: In the case where the house lost 1,000 STEEM in with a 10,000 STEEM wagered amount in a day, the div pool should have 50 STEEM (10000*0.005), correct?
If yes, I’m disappointed that the house has chosen this way for the profit sharing as this is obviously greatly in the favor of the house, in the beautiful name of “making sure token holders a steady stream of income even if the house make a loses”. This is however, completely up to the house’s decision and there is nothing right or wrong in this. I’m just glad I wasn’t as heavily invested in KG yet as others, I want my investment bring more income in long term and I don't mind a couple of zero days in div payout.
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@cryptopassion
You are completely right. The stat says it all. The manner of dividend calculation is surely not in the favor of players. Base on the explanation, it seems like the div is based on wagered volume instead of actual profit. Players might missed the daily dividend often, and that doesn’t feel good for sure. But I’m sure pulling time frame long enough everyone would be much more happy to receive a much higher dividend (at least 4x in this case) over several months. I guess this is why GAMER is getting worthless on the market right now.
With that said, I’m super glad that I stick with Epicdice the first day as they are practicing the real “actual profit” sharing model. 50% of the real time house profit would be poured in div pool and be shared among all the token(EPC) holders. And yes the house is not winning every day so it is norm that the holders receive nothing for several days in a week, but whenever the house is gaining, stakeholder always shared the half of it.
Interestingly, we can already clearly see the effectiveness in distributing profit in both cases here.
In KG, 24% of max supply token has been mined and total distributed div is 26k.
In ED, 5% of max supply token has been mined and total distributed div is 18k.
Considering both have the same halving rate, by the time ED has reached 24%, they would have distributed at least 160k STEEM div!! In other words, we can also say that GAMER holder has lost at least 130k in div, due to the way how div is determined in KG.
I just blown my own mind doing this math, damn.
@cryptoeater, I know that you are very good for calculations on these number.
Can you analyse it and say us if this kind of deviation between the house edge and the REAL profits withdrawed are normal?
If I calculate well, the house edge total amount since this casino started is around 37.000 STEEM as we received 70% of it (minus some fees) and the 70% is equal to 26.000 STEEM.
So since the start of that casino, how the house edge is around 37.000 STEEM and the real profit withdrawed can be 160.000 STEEM so more than 4X it. Does anybody here has the knowledge to know if this deviation is plausible or not? I'm agree these results can be different from one day to another but here we are talking about a period of several months.
I'd be willing to say that majority of profits came from WAY before dividends were a thing, for example I had 2.5 million volume before dividends were implemented. I know other players like @lexilee around the same volume and @lisboa and @grandlisboa had much more than me from BEFORE dividends were implemented. Just from us 4, statistically they should have made at least 100,000 STEEM before dividends were implemented. There were also a 3 or 4 big token farmers before dividends were out that had around 10-50 million tokens so around a few hundred thousand volume each. This accounts for around 110,000 STEEM just from 8 players from before dividends were out and I'm sure there are people I'm forgetting with large holdings. Assuming let's say all the other players combined lost 10k STEEM before dividends started, that's a total of at least 120k steem earned before dividends started.
However, that means their earned amount is still above 70%. This makes a lot of sense as most of their profits come from blackjack I assume, since players don't play perfectly so the real house edge might be as high as 10% (random guess) against players who just aren't good. Remember, the house edge is 0.5% on blackjack ONLY if you play perfectly, like a bot.
lol are you serious ?
Dividends started to be distributed May 5 and from 160.000STEEM, at least 100.000STEEM have been withdrawed after that period so nope it is not coming before dividends were implemented...
And even before May 5th, dividends were not paid but we received May 5 all the back log not yet paid, see your publication : https://steemit.com/gambling/@cryptoeater/kryptogamers-4731-steem-dividends-on-first-day-663-steem-claimed
So I don't think this explication is the root cause.. so perhaps they are doing fortune on blackjack, this is indeed there that I lost big money but in that case, it is time that they change way of calculation for dividends because we are receiving 1/4 of the real profits. It is nice to use house hedge to calculate our didvidends but if the real profits are 4 more higher, it is not fair for all token holders...
I was thinking about your explanation, if you was farming, it was to receive token and if token were already in place, perhaps the payment was not yet in place but you received dividends for them and they are included already in the 26k received as total dividend, see yourself your post : https://steemit.com/gambling/@cryptoeater/kryptogamers-4731-steem-dividends-on-first-day-663-steem-claimed
So this definitely not the reason of this deviation.
This is exactly what I'm trying to explain.
So perhaps my english is not good to do it and I'm sorry for it if this is the case but here is the data about what I'm talking about and thank you for this @zocken because I don't have the tech skills to find them.