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RE: A new puzzle about daily STEEM production (yes, really.)
Another mystery :-)
I would not doubt the predicted STEEM for the time being.
I would agree that the number of burned STEEM must be considered. Likewise the burned SBD, but there are certainly not many of those.
However, I doubt that over the entire period of your graph the number of average observed new STEEM is constant at 88191. I can't imagine that. Especially in view of the different numbers of burned STEEM.
This is perhaps where I would take another look.
Yeah, you're right about that. It's the daily average throughout the time period. Breaking it down by day in PowerBI is more complicated, so I haven't figured that out yet. Given that number as an average, I can't imagine any way that the individual daily numbers would close the gap overall, though.
Update:
That number is easy enough to verify with current values, not quite the same because it's a couple days later, but it's the same order of magnitude, and not big enough to get into sync with the prediction:
Okay, that is comprehensible.
With the time period you added, I determined how many beneficiaries received @null.
I requested it with steemchillers SDS (https://sds0.steemworld.org/rewards_api/getRewardsSums/comment_benefactor_reward/null/1687899873-1689512937)
There are 7452.925 STEEM and 17664666.159899 VESTS burned.
With https://sds0.steemworld.org/chain_api/getDailyAverageShareRates you can get the average rates to convert VESTS in STEEM. I take an estimated average of 0.000568471975896668 STEEM per VESTS.
With this numbers I calculated a change per day of round 89138. It's closer to the prediction, but not as close as I would have hoped. I don't have any other ideas at the moment. Even with the burned SBD (0.092 SBD) in this time period, it won't match.
TEAM MILLIONAIRE.
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