Calling the peak. Expected daily STEEM production probably peaked about 2 months ago
In my opinion, a peak was passed on Nov. 10, 2023 for the expected value of daily new STEEM production and a 13 year downtrend has probably begun - 3 months ahead of "schedule".
See here for some background.
The image below shows why I say that we have already passed the peak (Based on virtual_supply data from here).
Note the peak of 89,913 for "Predicted New STEEM per day" in the middle of the graph, and notice that the predicted daily values have been lower than that and declining since January 5, when the STEEM price dropped below the SBD print threshold.
As previously described, the theoretical peak would have been expected in the next month or so, but reductions in the virtual supply between November and today (due to burning and STEEM price movement above the SBD print threshold) mean that the expected daily STEEM production value almost certainly cannot get back to its November 10 level. As shown below, the predicted peak for February is now just 89,885, which is 28 STEEM below the November 10 value.
| Date | Block # | Inflation Rate | Supply | New Steem Per Day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-18 22:49:59.396422 | 81750000 | 0.065100 | 503957167 | 89883 |
| 2024-01-27 15:09:59.396422 | 82000000 | 0.065000 | 504737413 | 89884 |
| 2024-02-05 07:29:59.396422 | 82250000 | 0.064900 | 505517665 | 89885 |
| 2024-02-13 23:49:59.396422 | 82500000 | 0.064800 | 506297919 | 89885 |
| 2024-02-22 16:09:59.396422 | 82750000 | 0.064700 | 507078171 | 89884 |
| 2024-03-02 08:29:59.396422 | 83000000 | 0.064600 | 507858418 | 89883 |
At present, because the STEEM price is already below the SBD print threshold, burning and price movement can only decrease the expected value further.
As seen here and below, daily STEEM production can now be expected to trend down from the Nov. 10 peak until 2037 (when it will start increasing by a constant 0.95% per year).
The only caveats that I'm aware of are that:
- Unless offset by burning, paying interest on SBDs in savings could increase the daily STEEM production above the expected levels.
- Sometime in the distant future, (more than a century or two), daily production would be expected to catch up with current rates.
- A hardfork with rule changes could change anything.
Just for fun, here's the graph of expected daily new STEEM production for the next 150 years. Even in another century and a half, the Nov. 10 peak does not get reclaimed.
Thank you for your time and attention.
As a general rule, I up-vote comments that demonstrate "proof of reading".
Steve Palmer is an IT professional with three decades of professional experience in data communications and information systems. He holds a bachelor's degree in mathematics, a master's degree in computer science, and a master's degree in information systems and technology management. He has been awarded 3 US patents.
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... are this good news or bad news ;-))
I was wondering that, too, but I don't really have an opinion. 😉
And of course, there's still a lot of room for things to deviate from that model. I suspect that the witnesses will eventually decide to start issuing SBD interest, which would tend to drive the virtual supply (and therefore daily production) up. I'm also not sure if that's good or bad.
If our delegation bot users could get interest by saving SBDs, maybe some of them would prefer that over daily posting. But of course in that case, the trade off for less spam is higher inflation. OTOH, stakeholders who depend on income from delegation bot users might oppose that strategy, so maybe the witnesses who pursue SBD interest would get unvoted. Lots of question marks...
With the change in direction, the only thing I'm fairly confident about is that the behavioral dynamics in the next 8 years are likely to be somewhat different from the first 8.
Do you think that this will happen - is it being discussed? Presumably the objective is to move funds from voting bots into a more profitable model?
Hopefully a shift away from contests 😉
I think it will happen, eventually, but not any time soon. I'm not aware of any discussions on the topic. That's just me speculating.
When I look at that curve and see that witness rewards will drop from ~8,900 per day now to ~2,100 per day in 2037, it makes me think that the witnesses will want to explore interest payments as a possibility to increase their daily rewards starting in something like 2-6 years from now (unless the price of STEEM goes up enough to compensate for the reduction. But if that happens, the daily virtual supply - and therefore daily rewards - will go down even further, so the STEEM price would need to go up dramatically to sustain their current level of income).
Maybe. If contests are mainly a distribution mechanism, there will be progressively less to distribute. OTOH, it also makes it harder to reward the authors who produce attractive content, too. I have a hard time imagining how the decline will play out with content producers, investors, and curators. I guess this also depends a lot on how the STEEM price moves.
Consequences followed by more consequences... followed by even more consequences 🙂
Ha ha - You've asked what we were all thinking 🤣
Only producing steem and the price of sbd being more than 1$ harms the steem network, I hope everyone is aware of this.
Upvoted. Thank You for sending some of your rewards to @null. It will make Steem stronger.