Australian Federal Election 2019 Week 5 ~ Faites Vos Jeux
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These are the
betting odds for each party as collected by OddsChecker:
Note: The only party with a candidate in each seat is the United Australia Party.
Fellow blogger buggedout suggests "I
also follow the betting odds on political outcomes and I find that
Betfair (the betting exchange) is often the best guide."
Always gamble responsibly.
Party/Bookmaker |
Bet365
|
Bet(easy) |
Sportsbet |
TAB
|
Labor |
1.33 |
1.33 |
1.33 |
1.28 |
Coalition |
3.30 |
3.30 |
3.30 |
3.30 |
One Nation |
251.00 |
151.00 |
||
Australian Conservatives |
251.00 |
101.00 |
||
United Australia Party |
301.00 |
|||
Greens |
501.00 |
201.00 |
201.00 |
|
Everybody else |
501.00 |
The last seven days have had the end of Easter and ANZAC day to slow down the speech-making, but it soon got back into high gear.
A number of candidates have been dropped by their parties for making
politically incorrect comments that have been seized upon by the
media.
Its a bit late to change the candidates now that all the paperwork is
done and dusted. Political correctness is making all the leaders walk
on eggshells.
Morrison (Coalition) spent most of his time re-iterating his budget
proposals and trying to keep his foot out of his mouth. He went down
well in coal mining areas in Queensland.
Shorten (Labor) is concentrating on childcare, healthcare, cancer, age
pension dental and electric cars. Its just as well Bill doesn't drive
to
Canberra from home, his electric car wouldn't make it. As an aside,
adds on TV for electric cars have increased lately.
Adds by the major parties and the unions are negative and
lack imagination giving the impression to the general public that the
two parties are too tired to try. Clive Palmer (UAP) doesn't have to
point out the inadequacies of the major parties as they do it for him
and
he can and does concentrate on positive hard hitting adds.
Media political commentators have just realised that Clive Palmer is
getting supporters, at least one editor was open mouthed with shock, I
saw it with my own eyes.
An extremely far left lobby group had to withdraw an election campaign add because it was politically incorrect and caused hurt and dismay to the Royal Surf Life Saving Association. Bill Shorten (Labor) said that the add was "grossly disrespectful and stupid" amongst other criticisms. Obviously Bill does not like support from precocious juvenile delinquents.
In an equal and opposite reaction the Coalition have formed their own lobby group that hopefully they can rely upon to do the right thing.
The Coalition is under fire for approving a uranium mine in West Australia and a coal mine in Queensland just before the election was called. Logically the environmental impact is marginal but who uses logic when protesting or voting?
Pauline Hanson (One Nation) is having a hard time lately, with one of her contenders resigning after a video of him having a hands-on experience with an exotic dancer was released. Hanson is having difficulty coping with the (unfair) onslaught by Palmer.With the predicted primary vote favouring the Coalition it is essential that Labor is bolsterd by distributed preferernces. Currently there is no formal Labor coalition, but this may change after the results of this election. The UAP claims that both major parties made enquiries about preferences, but neither party wants to be publically associated with the UAP.
Thanks for reading such a dull subject.
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It may be a dull subject but it's kind of an important one.
Thanks for the shout-out. Betfair has the coalition at about 4.20 though I have seen them as short as 3.50 over the last week.
My prediction is a marginal Labor win of about 10-15 seats and then the Greens getting balance of power in the senate. It's a bit of an ugly scenario that would see an informal coalition of the left as Labor becomes dependant on the Greens to get legislation through.
The situation is still fluid, but my expectation is that the dyed-in-the-wool voters won't change and the floaters will be seduced by Palmer. There is no doubt that the voters are not happy.
Curated for #informationwar (by @wakeupnd)
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