Guess I Was Right About Tesla
5 months ago I made a rather bold statement that the entire Elon Musk group of companies is nothing but a science meme ready to collapse — a fraud that has never made any profit and rather got shilled in subsidies and grants from "mysterious" ways from the government. Turns out Goldman Sacks latest analysis agrees. Tesla stock is about to take a dive of about 40% due to a poor model 3.
According to the grand daddy of Wall Street the third quarter Model 3 delivery miss is further evidence that Musk's words travel further than his actions. This is no news since continuous productions problems have been ongoing throughout the year even if the orders kept piling up.
So far Tesla shares shook off the bad evaluation and up 60% for this year. Nonetheless, the entire bull run was due to an empty hype with no substantial product to back it up. Common folk lined up to invest in a company that pretty much promised the future with Space X, Tesla and Solar City but so far has very little to show.
Like I explained in my first article the entire Tesla phenomenon occurred due to a scientific meme that had investors confuse science fiction with science reality and finally, science application. There is nothing novel with Tesla other than extreme advertising along with some pop-culture shilling and plenty of government subsidies. Many things can be done with unlimited free government money including the fancy model 3 gadgets. Even the fancy landing rocket (as a common project with NASA), turned out to be a similar dodgy shill as I explain in my previous article.
Innovation is a fantastic thing if it's done properly but the way Tesla is advertised resembles a massive public deception. The electric car idea has already been adopted all over the world. The way electric cars are advertised in America look as ridiculous to people in Asia as westerners advertising ice-cubes in the North Pole. Much like Apple's products the user is overbuying something that is not so revolutionary or even green. A few extra fancy additions do not excuse neither the price, nor the delay in production from a company that has had all the help in the world in order to get ahead. If any other company had this kind of government assistance I can't even begin to imagine what kind of electric cars we would all be driving today.
To start, SpaceX isnt part of Tesla...that is a totally separate company so your analysis is off base right there.
Secondly, while you can claim there is nothing novel about electric cars, what is novel is someone selling over 100K of them in a year.
Thirdly, production problems and delays in deliveries are nothing new in the car industry. This happens to all manufacturers. That said, Muck is producing more electric cars than anyone else in the world right now. Is it a gimmick? Perhaps. Even at $35K, that isnt a car most people can afford. However, all other traditional manufacturers are facing a bigger uphill climb than Musk right now.
Finally, you mention the subsidies. You act like Tesla got something special. The rebates from the Feds (and some states) are available on all electric vehicles.
As for your conclusion that you were right all along, I am not sure how you assert that. What collapsed? Are you really trying to use the fact that he missed the 1,500 model 3 deliveries as a reason for that? It seems the stock performed rather well. I think you overlooked the fact that he still sold more cars, overall, than was projected in Q3.
It is easy to knock a company that isnt making money. People did it for years with Amazon. What is different about Musk is it doesnt matter. He has an idea and people (the Street) gives him billions. He wants to drill tunnels, he gets billions for VC guys. Going to Mars...billions....he wants to build an igloo in the sahara, he would get billions for that.
One point for you to consider, tencent owns over 5% of Tesla...they arent about to let him go under. Elon has a black check since one of the largest Chinese companies is backing him.
First, I am not invested in Stocks. Any stocks.
Second. I meant the Elon Musk group.
Third, production problems seem to always magically arise in every single product they roll out, they get subsidies/bailouts and then continue to another product. In other words they keep a trail of hypes that keeps the market pumping. This is not sustainable.
This is what I am calling out. Obviously I am not going to make a post when it collapses. I will make a call before it does. I just made this post to demonstrate that top analysts came to the same conclusion as I have.
Selling overall cars means nothing when you cannot meet your capital demands for quarters. This is where the public falls short.
Anyways, the fact that you are comparing it with amazon shows that you bought the hype as well. Time will tell. I will be here.
I can forgive him that. He is pushing some markets and reviving some others, i don't mind some losses here and there.
Again this comment shows your inability to face being wrong.
10 years?
it hasn't even been a month boy and the shirtstorm has arrived
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/25/tesla-firings-spread-across-solarcity-employees-blindsided.html
Also although it should be legit to say 5-10 years given the fact that the companies just started, no, I give it tops 1 since this post was written to all come down. I will keep posting the news here for your convenience.
3 months later Tesla stock has bounced back, The Economist runs articles about SpaceX and the upcoming BFR and on the streets of Luxembourg I see more and more Model S black taxis while a new Tesla Model X SUV seems to be replacing a Porsche Cayenne in front of a new house every week. Tesla might well be the product of a collective dellusion (a bit like religions) but that doesn't spell doom for it ... at least not for the next 2000 years ...
Kyriaco, why do you keep posting the same stats headed TECH? All are exactly the same, datewise, so they cannot be updates on each other.
If I may digress. Many years ago I had a programmer make a program for me. When speaking, socially, with a CEO of a multi-billion dollar corporation, he offered to buy the proggie for $400,000. I was not projecting that kind of earnings over five years, so I sold it. He then explained to me why he is not going to market the program.
Our company will earn $20 million from it over the next ten years - as long as we do not sell even one copy. We will pay for a professional to evaluate the program so as to enable us to enter it on our books as an asset of $20million. Then the IRS allows us to write off the value, at the numbers I've given you. If we sell even one copy, then the IRS will not accept our evaluation as being an asset for writing off.
It is one of the reasons I made the comment I did. Businessmen have their own reasons for doing what they do. Would you have imagined the worlds top banks would declare themselves about to go bankrupt? Once you saw they want billions from the goverments (from us), it sort of made sense, eh?
Now that the main auto manufacturers are trying to get into the game, I won't be surprised if he is receiving offers for a buy-out at some fancy high price.
Thanks for offering to keep us updated, as I look forward to finding out exactly what is being planned.
The point here is not Tesla's business strategy but if you read through my posts the mentality he is being promoting. When I say "I guess I was right about Tesla" my point was to demonstrate how a business being funded mainly from government subsidies cannot be sustainable. Add to that the proxy funded Solar City and Space X and you understand where this circus is headed.
I will keep posting the updates.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/27/tesla-nears-bear-market-territory-and-it-could-get-a-lot-worse.html?__source=Facebook
Exactly! Government should not be picking winners and losers by subsidies 👍 I know I’m late to seeing this post but wanted to give my thoughts anyway! I agree
I've got no objection to your posting updates. I have since realised that comments are being repeated, I return to where I made a recent comment and find two or three repeats. I also have not been able to post anything, but I can comment, so though I don't know what is happening, I see I was wrong in commenting about repeats.
I am not deeply into Tesla and so on, though I live fairly close to where he grew up. However, I mentioned to a businessman who does invest in the stock exchange and he told me that Toyota have already a 30% share in his cars.
Personally I believe it must be about time for him to sell off the majority of his shares; he is an innovator and should be concentrating on developing new ideas, not in running businesses. It is not easy to be an Accountant and a creative developer and once he is becoming more of an accountant, then it is time to move on.
Great points.
Of course, I could barely get off the floor from laughing to type this as I read the last sentence. "If any other company had this kind of government assistance I can't even begin to imagine what kind of electric cars we would all be driving today."
After reading that I last sentence I realized that the whole article is either farce or satire. I'm going with farce.
You could take it to mean that but I have seen enough hatchet jobs on Tesla to know that people actually believe what is in this article.
Looking at the comments, there were people who agreed with what was written so it could be possible this guy believes it.
Jeez, I guess you're probably right.
Now we're seeing that Tesla has pushed GM, Volvo and Mercedes to actually come into the modern automobile age by moving their lines to majority (and soon enough) only electric cars being produced. A few months ago those guys considered Electric to be gimmicks (see Bob Lutz).
At this point the path is littered with the bodies of those who predicted the demise of Tesla / Tesla Stock / Elon Musk. Heck, I think there's a special bar where Tesla short traders go to cry in their bourbon each night. They might be right this time around, and if they are I'll buy Tesla on the bounce, which would be great to get back in at $220.
I expect Q4 numbers will be very solid for Model 3 - and overall I'd expect 32-34K vehicles to hit the streets.
All while building the world's biggest battery for delivery in Australia. And, launching more satellites with reusable rockets. (Not sure where the hype and fraud are there)
I would love to see TSLA at $220 again. I dont think it is going to happen. Too many long term holders for it to drop back that far. It if approaches $300, buyers will jump in.
You are right, people have been announcing the demise of Tesla for a couple years. I watched one guy who admitted he thought AMZN was overpriced at $400 said that he is bearish on TSLA like he has been for tow years. His comment, why should I change now? Perhaps because you are WRONG.
Q4..Q1 next year....at some point Musk will get the 3 rolling off the assembly line in force. Right now, he is producing more electric cars than any other company in the world. He might not be able to keep that edge since he has some big competitors. That said, they all have to, at worst, retool, for electric or, more likely, build new factories. Well, guess what Ole Elon is doing...building more factories.
Musk in In 1998 interviewed while hes making paypal, He says he sees business as a high stakes poker game. I think sometimes he bluffs and sometimes hes got a good hand. From what Ive read solar city innovated the space significatly. Still hes got the most chips at the table. (Space X is the bluff Right now tho... blue oracle looks more impressive) tesla tho come on its a status symbol already and america consumers are attracted to shiny new things with status associations. Also, about the subsidized aspect, all fortune 500 companies are subsidized, look at how much corporate wellfare is given to JpMorgan Chase, Amazon.com, or even the other American car companies in 2008. Musk is just playing the game infront of him.
it won't last. This is part of the reason the stocks are in all time highs.
Whats not going to last, the world economy? Because I would agree that as a whole its unsustainable. But to point at Tesla and say theyre fucked up when they just play the same game all of their competitors play . . Thats not wrong its just playing the hand your’re given.
So far the stock is still at 348$, a nice return if you got in at 200. The risk was clear, nobody was forced to buy. But as long as a 40% dip has not yet come, it is a little early to speak of fraud. Any proof of that?
Can it be that you have a massive short position, like so many? "No substantial product"? There is technology in those cars, especially the aotonomous driving software, that is state of the art, way more advanced then any competitor. Are we speaking about the same company?
Dealing in the facts ruins grandstanding.
I laugh when people think that Waymo is the leader in Autonomous technology.
AI requires data and when it comes to car data, Musk has over a billion miles a quarter driven that he is gathering info about.
Fact. H has been missing all quarter quotas and failed to make any profit. Every project is build on the hype from the past one. It is a massive bubble, a domino effect that will be triggered once the last project under delivers.
this is what a financial analysis is. not the fact that muricans find the car sexy.
are you still laughing?
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/25/tesla-firings-spread-across-solarcity-employees-blindsided.html
Wow 205 employees in a company that employs 33,000....Really something to get your panties in a ruffle about.
You want updates how about this...
https://techcrunch.com/2017/10/24/tesla-makes-quick-work-of-puerto-rico-hospital-solar-power-relief-project/
https://www.inverse.com/article/37744-tesla-flagship-puerto-rico-project
https://electrek.co/2017/09/29/tesla-new-giant-powerpack-project-in-australia/
https://electrek.co/2017/10/26/tesla-model-3-range-charging-capacity-underselling-epa-document/
https://electrek.co/2017/10/25/panasonic-battery-production-tesla-gigafactory-1-other-factories-report/
Of course, this company laid off thousands...are they going under too...
http://fortune.com/2017/07/06/microsoft-layoff-cloud-sales/
So yeah I am still laughing.
Obviously I am calling i before it happens.
When the event comes the proof will be that he is been continuously losing Quarter quotas.
The proof obviously is not a move in the charts. That's the consequence.
oh its coming. i will keep posting updates
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/25/tesla-firings-spread-across-solarcity-employees-blindsided.html
When Bitcoin took its 40% dip, us the crypto world, didn't think it was bullish or a shitty project. Well I guess it is the same for Tesla. The guy is a visionary. As in all visions, there is a risk. But risk brings the most valuable profit.
entirely different thing.
why ? lol
well, loly , here is one. I will keep you updated don't worry. The Blockchain IS forever.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/25/tesla-firings-spread-across-solarcity-employees-blindsided.html
I read a post last time telling how Tesla had bad results this year compared to the others. Again, all those issues that the company is facing doesn't remove the fact that Elon Musk is a genius full of innovative ideas. But I got you when you highlight the fact that Tesla is undertaking a bad period. Hopefully it will get better for them and their employee =). Thanks for sharing
You are right about somethings about Tesla, but take a look at the 6 months graphic, it's bullish. Yes, the model 3 is late but won't take a dive of 40%. it's up in the last 24h.
we will talk again. I gave the warning and explained the reasons.
Kyriaco, foreseeing prices of shares should not be lightly undertaken, especially when you have no idea of what is going on behind the scenes. I understand you consider yourself a philosopher - I do not think that qualifies you as a financial advisor.
This reply of mine is 15 days after your post was made (and I presume the Goldman Sachs announcement). I just checked with Nasdeq
What brokers announce is not for the good of the normal small investor, it is more usually to panic them into making wrong decisions that will benefit themselves and their huge investors. You should not be abetting them, unless you are being rewarded by them - as Soros philosophises, making a profit justifies every and any thing, even loss of lives.
As for your other reasons, I do not agree with them either. As a businessman, if I decide to take the plunge in investing in a new technology, I think it over ten times, get all the facts and advice I can - and then make my decisions. It also means I know there will be hiccups along the way, but I must not panic, for I am banking on the proven ability of the inventor in overcoming problems of technology.
Of course there always remains the possibility I may lose, but the returns, if I do not, are so high, that the risk is justified. Also, another point that belies your claim, most investors will only invest what they can afford to lose or else, find other ways of covering their arses.
Sure, sure. stay tuned. Let's watch your 101 analysis get REKT.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/25/tesla-firings-spread-across-solarcity-employees-blindsided.html
My impression of Elon was that he's a master of the Classic Bait and Switch, make big promises and then make newer, bigger promises before anyone notices that you never fulfilled your last promises.
I find it hard to give credibility to anyone that is propped up by the mainstream and especially anyone that the MSM plays cheerleader to.
This is how you become a billionaire. And while it sucks, it is the investors responsibility to know this.
Musk is thriving on the notion that we need a future dream -- worse yet, folks buy into it. I like the guy for his gumption, but we need to feed, clothe, and shelter the human race -- not fling them into space.
The problem is that, as a taxpayer, you're an unwitting investor.
And that is why divid and conquer AND wag the dog are working. Folks are focusing on the wrong topics.
An imaginary scenario, if I may.
Before we became one world, one island has a relaxed and happy style of life and without them noticing it, at first, their population grows beyond what the island can feed.
Some say, slow down the birth rate
Some, kill all the babies for they are not people yet, until we are down to what we can feed - others counter, if we do so, the numbers we can feed will grow to a tenth of what it is, since soon almost nobody will be available for growing the food.
Others, look at the horizon and say, we must learn to build boats, for there must be other islands out there.
But, they are countered by those who angrily demand they only concentrate on healing and feeding everyone and forget this wasteful idea of travelling.
What a pity, said one person to himself, we do not need new medicines, we need more honest people in the medicine business (witchdoctors) and killing the babies is a bad solution, for it will kill what makes us humans, while exploring the seas, extending the frontier of our people will strengthen our spirits and maybe some good island will be found... but reason and ethics will be transformed to suit the wishes of each party, until we die out, or stop existing as people, and become feeble, unintelligent animals that know nothing about dreaming and growing.
The proponents of the theories of us devolving will win, for it means we do not have to struggle, make an exertion and risk failing.
Sigh. Maybe it is what we deserve?
No. But we will have to break away.
Who is John Galt?
Gosh, I actually read through both my comments, s I could not recall writing about him
John Galt is a character in Ayn Rand's novel Atlas Shrugged (1957). Although he is not identified by name until the last third of the novel, he is the object of its often-repeated question "Who is John Galt?" and of the quest to discover the answer.
As the plot unfolds, Galt is acknowledged to be a philosopher and inventor; he believes in the power and glory of the human mind, and the right of the individual to use their mind solely for themselves.
I'm not into Elon Musk - he is a dreamer but will anything stick for longer?
While Tesla and other Musk companies are currently over-selling the capabilities of their products, I personally think they will succeed longterm. If you extrapolate the rate of improvement in in the battery and solar tech you can easily see the benefits.
At some point the cost of producing power with solar will be less than the cost of transmitting electricity in the conventional grid.
Imagine when the efficiency of EV are 50% better than today, power is 50% cheaper and the required maintenence is zero (close to).
Maybe it won't be Musk, but hes sure onto something.
think again
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/25/tesla-firings-spread-across-solarcity-employees-blindsided.html
I actually pre-ordered the model 3 the day it Tesla announced they were accepting pre-orders. My cousin owns a model S and I'm in love with the car and it was the main reason why I put down my per-order but boy am I really annoyed. It's been almost 2 years since I put my down payment, and I still don't know anything.
When do I choose my color?
When do I choose my interior?
Battery size?
Rims?
When can I expect delivery?
I literally put down the down payment the first minute it was made available so I was expecting Q4 if i was lucky or worst case q1 2018. Then I started leaning towards end of Q1 because of the lack of updates. Then early Q2. Now end of Q2 or maybe Q3. I don't need the car now but atleast provide some damn updates. Even the ico's nowadays provide more legit updates then Tesla. It is what it is. Stock is def overvalued imo but still a fan of their cars.
next year Elon Musk will be collecting lawyers to defend against mass lawsuits. screencap this.
Yes, the news for Tesla is a bit glum...today.
Kudos @kyriacos for your accurate speculation.
However, it doesn't stop me from lol when the lady in the dark-green Tesla zooms past me several times a week. Sometimes, she only cruises ahead to get to the stop-light first; and, off she goes.
Long story short, it's a beautiful car. Perhaps, it's just too futuristic for the now. I don't know.
However, I think this is great news for making this a vehicle at a price-point that will put more of them on the road. If I had stock in Tesla, I would be HODL! :+)
For some reason I don't see Tesla as the new DeLorean.
Thanks for sharing!
Peace.