BTC is absolutely looking stronger! So why am I not buying... yet?
Bitcoin is breaking that downtrend line and is looking stronger... we are gonna moon right? Why TF am I not buying??
Bitcoin is in a triangle formation. Which is key to my decision. What is a triangle formation? Or better question what causes a triangle formation? In a triangle you basically have longs and shorts taking a position only to be stopped out close to the upper and lower ranges. A simple trendline break does not provide enough confirmation to take a trade with a high enough degree of probabilistic success. You need more. Because what typically happens is you take a TL break long for example and prices falls back into the triangle down through to range and stops you out, only to form a new trendline/upper boundary of the triangle.
Today we look at BTC and we see there are two really REALLY heavy signals of trouble above still on the 4 hr.
1- the point of control is holding
2- we are under the 200 SMA
The point of control is the price at which the most volume has traded over your chosen timeframe. In the image we can see that in this consolidation period the most volume has traded at 2554.64... if we continue to reject here... more downside is to be expected as everyone who bought the trendline break gets stopped out.
The 200 SMA is heavy resistance/support on any timeframe. It's similar to a POC but it gives more general area where volume has occured over a longer time frame.
IF we continue to push higher on solid volume up and over the 200 and POC you can bet your britches I'll be long and looking for moon... but UNTIL that happens the probabilities are not in our favor.... waiting.
Happy Hunting
Disclaimer: This is NOT trading or investment advice. This is simply my opinion to be used for educational purposes only. If you decide to trade you are doing so at your own risk.
Nice post. First time I've ever seen the term POC!
Looks like we're consolidating above the breakout now back and forth around the 200 sma on the 4 hour chart.
I've got lot's of other reasons why BTC is still in bull mode, but I can see why it's a good idea to wait for short term confirmation (especially for day traders) like getting above the 200 and the POC as you have explained.
Let's see what happens!
Cheers
Right on.. I'm with you long term.. I'm defintely bullish. Market and volume profiles have been the most pivotal philosophies for me when it comes to trading. I'm a big fan of game theory in trading.
Pretty amazing just how solid that POC is! Looks like it's finally turned into support. And the 200sma as well. Or have they? It looks very tentative, yet firm. Almost 3 days of consolidation just above both with an attempt lower down to the 50ema which is now working as support too and turning higher. What do you think? Are you a buyer yet?
I think it may have a rally, but will drop heavily before August 1st. I think this will be your best buying opportunity before it rebounds and sets new highs!
based on what?
The bitcoin segwit coming. There will be a lot of uncertainty and fear in the markets as we get closer to this date. I could totally be wrong though. Just my opinion.
Right on.. so what you are saying is you are guessing based on what you know about segwit. Nothing wrong with forming an opinion on the issue, for sure. But guessing is not a winning approach to trading over the long haul.