Wisdom of the day

If you think something is almost sure to happen, but it is generally very unlikely than you are very likely to be off in your estimation.

You are probably just sensing that it is way more likely to happen than it should be, but it is still unlikely, you just don't perceive it that way.

Example: you think it is almost impossible for bitcoin to break 6800 in the first try. Well, if bitcoin is at 6700 and someone not knowing anything but math and the standard deviation of bitcoin is gonna come to the conclusion, that it is very likely it is gonna go > 6800. You can still bet on that, but any time you bet on a 1:4 risk reward thing, you are most likely to loose.

Btw, I did not bet on that and was long for the short squeeze, just saying..