RE: I correctly predicted the BTC crash. So where to next?
Thanks @Flungspun. If I understand your first point right, you're leaning towards another wave down (5) to the $8k area. I very much agree with that possibility and give it a 50/50 chance. The only reason I may lean more towards bottom being in is because "A" down in Dec was a very messy subwave count.
One rule of Elliott is wave "C" is similar in time and duration (but also shape in a way), to "A", which could justify a messy "C" count.
Really tough to know, but I have high conviction one or the other is true. Studying the sub-wave makeup of this bounce (3 wave vs 5 wave move up) should gives us more context. Great points.
Not sure I understand the second part of your post (not your fault, describing Elliott in text format is tough to convey/pick up). Typically wave 5 is of equal length to wave 1 except in the case of an ending diagonal (very bearish to the trend).
In an ending diagonal each motive wave (1, 3, 5) gets progressively shorter. Wave 1 is longest, 3 is shorter, and 5 is shorter than 3. This usually signifies a reversal to the corresponding trend on that timeframe.
Feel free to clear me up on anything I'm not understanding. Your Elliott outlook seems good. Much better than Haejin's :)
Ah yes Elliot and text ... tricky. I'm going to attempt to put up a chart but I'm currently looking at spaghetti and no option to fix it right now.
I should have been more specific in that looking o for the bottom of wave C correction there is a possibility to fit to the preexisting channel support (but no space to fit the final 5 wave impulse.
If that was to work the ABC of wave 4 must aggressively extend up to allow for that space.
The result is not as I implied a "short 5" but a wave 5 that starts higher(close to crossing 1) and results in a lesser extension below the 3
Thus fitting nicely into my preconceived idea that BTC should do what I tell it and never the reverse. :)
Maybe we are just going to make that channel a bit wider.
The problem there is that for wave 4 to be that aggressive it will look bullish and impulsive, the ABC will look like 123-4- oh where did 5 ... down we go?
I'd guess the giveaway would be
A&C of ABC should be equal ?
but 3 of an impulse is longer than 1.
So even now I'm still expecting that EMA150 to have a candle end planted quite a bit closer than it is now. RSI on the daily bottom and a big old 5 waves down as I resume hitting the buy button. I just really didn't like the look of it as it left the gates @9200 .. short term ... oops
OR quite the epic triangle is forming into February ............
@Flungspun I very much agree with those possibilities. The 4 fakeout is very possible (markets LOVE fakeouts). Very very good comments. Thumbs up!
fakeout,
I see what you did there.
Used a whole word to describe my paragraphs accurately .... haha
Appreciate the feedback, thanks.
lest see how it plays.