RE: I correctly predicted the BTC crash. So where to next?
Interesting, I like your perspectives.
I'm really just learning and getting a feel for this stuff but a couple of things don't quite sit right for me at this moment.
The 150 EMA really was just wicked leaving the candle body ( at present) a good margin away from the EMA line @ 9700
We are really close to a long term trend support @8k under today's candle - possible wave 5 target is on that line in my mind.
That bounce from 9260 had me thinking IMPULSIVE MOVE AFTER EMA HIT while all the time pondering the notion that If wave one was long, wave 5 is going to be short and the 3-4 correction still needed to be significant to make some space and time for that to look right on a chart.
Anyway just some thoughts from an amateur enjoying watching it all play out.
Thanks for your posts
Thanks @Flungspun. If I understand your first point right, you're leaning towards another wave down (5) to the $8k area. I very much agree with that possibility and give it a 50/50 chance. The only reason I may lean more towards bottom being in is because "A" down in Dec was a very messy subwave count.
One rule of Elliott is wave "C" is similar in time and duration (but also shape in a way), to "A", which could justify a messy "C" count.
Really tough to know, but I have high conviction one or the other is true. Studying the sub-wave makeup of this bounce (3 wave vs 5 wave move up) should gives us more context. Great points.
Not sure I understand the second part of your post (not your fault, describing Elliott in text format is tough to convey/pick up). Typically wave 5 is of equal length to wave 1 except in the case of an ending diagonal (very bearish to the trend).
In an ending diagonal each motive wave (1, 3, 5) gets progressively shorter. Wave 1 is longest, 3 is shorter, and 5 is shorter than 3. This usually signifies a reversal to the corresponding trend on that timeframe.
Feel free to clear me up on anything I'm not understanding. Your Elliott outlook seems good. Much better than Haejin's :)
Ah yes Elliot and text ... tricky. I'm going to attempt to put up a chart but I'm currently looking at spaghetti and no option to fix it right now.
I should have been more specific in that looking o for the bottom of wave C correction there is a possibility to fit to the preexisting channel support (but no space to fit the final 5 wave impulse.
If that was to work the ABC of wave 4 must aggressively extend up to allow for that space.
The result is not as I implied a "short 5" but a wave 5 that starts higher(close to crossing 1) and results in a lesser extension below the 3
Thus fitting nicely into my preconceived idea that BTC should do what I tell it and never the reverse. :)
Maybe we are just going to make that channel a bit wider.
The problem there is that for wave 4 to be that aggressive it will look bullish and impulsive, the ABC will look like 123-4- oh where did 5 ... down we go?
I'd guess the giveaway would be
A&C of ABC should be equal ?
but 3 of an impulse is longer than 1.
So even now I'm still expecting that EMA150 to have a candle end planted quite a bit closer than it is now. RSI on the daily bottom and a big old 5 waves down as I resume hitting the buy button. I just really didn't like the look of it as it left the gates @9200 .. short term ... oops
OR quite the epic triangle is forming into February ............
@Flungspun I very much agree with those possibilities. The 4 fakeout is very possible (markets LOVE fakeouts). Very very good comments. Thumbs up!
fakeout,
I see what you did there.
Used a whole word to describe my paragraphs accurately .... haha
Appreciate the feedback, thanks.
lest see how it plays.