RE: Bitcoin & Crypto Markets Dive Bomb | GREAT Opportunity!
This may just be a precursor. In all honesty we may see a slight recovery in the next few days with a lot of sideways action leading up to the Jan 24-25 date before another major dip occurs (possibly towards the ~$7800 BTC level). The good news however is that IF this happens I expect it to hit the floor quite hard and bounce back up settling around the 10k mark for about 2 weeks before starting to rise again to the ~$13,800 level, which if it passes would become a new support floor which would act to hold the BTC price above this level going forward where we could then continue our climb back up towards record highs in the weeks/months following that. With all that said I have a feeling that many of the alt-coins without a lot of substance (aka shitcoins) may not survive this one very well and may never recover back to their previous highs (BTC will, good alts will, shitcoins likely won't).
Starting Jan 7, 2014... BTC crashes -23.13% (24 days before Chinese New Year which was Jan 31, 2014)
Starting Jan 26, 2015... BTC crashes -32.35% (24 days before Chinese New Year which was February 19, 2015)
Starting Jan 15, 2016... BTC crashes -24.19% (24 days before Chinese New Year which was February 8, 2016)
Starting Jan 5, 2017... BTC crashes -35.39% (23 days before Chinese New Year which was January 28, 2017)
Starting Jan 24-25, 2018... will BTC crash 25-35% to continue the trend??? (23-24 days before Chinese New Year which is February 16, 2018)
I would personally be quite hesitant to get into the market at the current time, as you may very well be better off waiting ~1-2 more weeks before making any new positions in the crypto space.
Just my 2 Satoshis...
I like astrology too, it fits so well within all the China FUD, Year of the Dragon wise...
Indeed, I think it is almost a rule that as soon as some pattern is observed, it disappears.
In general that's true, but for many years strategies like seasonality (e.g. Stock Traders' Almanac) were popular and even profitable. Eventually all that inefficiency disappeared.
The crypto space is much less efficient than the stock market so we're probably seeing the same pre-Chinese New Year dip again.
Good point, with less regulated markets like the crypto space these tend to happen. I just tend to be skeptical of these kinds of analisis is all.
It's good to compare past patterns as these are often co-generated by algos, and you can see their typical buying and selling patterns in the wave structures... we do have a completely different situation than last year now though.
It is definitely strange, but after a while such effects stop because they really don't make ANY sense at all. For example, do you think this would have happened if we got exceptionally good news on Bitcoin today instead? I think it's more correlation than causation, although it is acting a bit like a self-fulfilling prophecy.
What are your predictions for next week, month. I am about to get in, and I am very excited, I just dont know what is the best time, tomorrow or for week or two, or to do it in parts?
Any thoughts on why this patter occurs 23-24 days before Chinese New Year ? Do they usually pass regulations on the start of the New Year or it's just the psychology of the investors ?
That's worth at least 200 Satoshis, @budz82 ;)
Excellent... Thank you and god bless you...
History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes.
Well played budz82, let's hope you're right.
I'll load up just to make sure it drops…
I like watching the order book for positions of intense concentrations of limit orders. The buy on the spike.
Be weary of comparing and "forcing" patterns with crypto charts.
The market is different every month, and the reasons for flash crashes are different every time. That's not to say the same types of events don't catalyze such crashes, just that the reasons behinds those events are different every time!