Bitcoin & Crypto Markets Dive Bomb | GREAT Opportunity!
Bitcoin and most cryptocurrencies are tanking today, possibly on news from China suggesting an even stricter crackdown on ALL centralized cryptocurrency trading, beyond the stances they've already taken against ICOs and exchanges. Furthermore, there are speculations over the Chinese New Year and typical January lulls contributing to the fall.
While I am skeptical over the idea that prices are seasonal, I do think this is a strong opportunity. For those of you who missed out on being able to buy Bitcoin back when it reached $10k back on December 22nd, this could be a good time to scale more cash into the market if you generally keep a cash position in your portfolio. Personally I won't be adding more as I already scaled my position comfortably back on December 22nd and don't plan on buying more Bitcoin til it goes to $10k or lower.
Generally speaking, I still prefer Bitcoin over altcoins. While it is unfortunate that it is currently looking like Bitcoin will retake its dominance on the downside rather than the upside, I still find it to be better exposure for the crypto market in either direction.
On the topic of whether or not the bubble is popping, I still suspect we have a while left and there are plenty of speculators (ahem, "investors") waiting on the sidelines for "cheap" Bitcoin. While I still think Bitcoin is a bubble, there is plenty of room for it to grow and both retail and institutional investors are waiting for better entry levels to ride the hype. Naturally it's always possible that the bubble is popping, but my thoughts (for now) are that we are still on board to see higher levels.
As such, if we see Bitcoin decline further from here, I will continue to shift more funds into it especially if we see it reach $8k (a level that many people are watching). In the event that this ends up being a more sustained downtrend, I would be ready to pick up more at lower price levels.
What are your thoughts on this current price movement? Do you think it will continue or it is shortlived? Thank you for watching as always.
There is no more room for emotional state of mind and cryptocurrency on the same bus. Cryptocurrency fluctuates and breathe like a set of lungs. When crypto inhale get ready for your investment to Skyrocket and when markets exhale , look out below because cryptocurrency is not for the faint at heart and it's obvious at this point, cryptocurrency is just experiencing exhaling and as the markets get ready to bounce back before the next round of shorts starts ,before ultimately traders who are trying to drive down the price back to five or six thousand USD are finally going to be happy before they can open up a new series of Long's, well what are you waiting for? lets go ;p
God bless crypto currency, God bless Steemit and Cryptovestor, keep up the good work, we love the blog and videos!
Well I get emotional when this stuff happens - it's just a different emotion from most: Excitement!
Hope you are well brother.
I felt both, excitement and terror. That's an improvement, during the Xmas correction I just felt terror!
100% agree with you @jazminmillion
although, even pro panis when graphs deeps hahahahaha
Thanks for this wonderful insight @cryptovestor
Bless you both!
This may just be a precursor. In all honesty we may see a slight recovery in the next few days with a lot of sideways action leading up to the Jan 24-25 date before another major dip occurs (possibly towards the ~$7800 BTC level). The good news however is that IF this happens I expect it to hit the floor quite hard and bounce back up settling around the 10k mark for about 2 weeks before starting to rise again to the ~$13,800 level, which if it passes would become a new support floor which would act to hold the BTC price above this level going forward where we could then continue our climb back up towards record highs in the weeks/months following that. With all that said I have a feeling that many of the alt-coins without a lot of substance (aka shitcoins) may not survive this one very well and may never recover back to their previous highs (BTC will, good alts will, shitcoins likely won't).
Starting Jan 7, 2014... BTC crashes -23.13% (24 days before Chinese New Year which was Jan 31, 2014)
Starting Jan 26, 2015... BTC crashes -32.35% (24 days before Chinese New Year which was February 19, 2015)
Starting Jan 15, 2016... BTC crashes -24.19% (24 days before Chinese New Year which was February 8, 2016)
Starting Jan 5, 2017... BTC crashes -35.39% (23 days before Chinese New Year which was January 28, 2017)
Starting Jan 24-25, 2018... will BTC crash 25-35% to continue the trend??? (23-24 days before Chinese New Year which is February 16, 2018)
I would personally be quite hesitant to get into the market at the current time, as you may very well be better off waiting ~1-2 more weeks before making any new positions in the crypto space.
Just my 2 Satoshis...
I like astrology too, it fits so well within all the China FUD, Year of the Dragon wise...
Indeed, I think it is almost a rule that as soon as some pattern is observed, it disappears.
In general that's true, but for many years strategies like seasonality (e.g. Stock Traders' Almanac) were popular and even profitable. Eventually all that inefficiency disappeared.
The crypto space is much less efficient than the stock market so we're probably seeing the same pre-Chinese New Year dip again.
Good point, with less regulated markets like the crypto space these tend to happen. I just tend to be skeptical of these kinds of analisis is all.
It's good to compare past patterns as these are often co-generated by algos, and you can see their typical buying and selling patterns in the wave structures... we do have a completely different situation than last year now though.
It is definitely strange, but after a while such effects stop because they really don't make ANY sense at all. For example, do you think this would have happened if we got exceptionally good news on Bitcoin today instead? I think it's more correlation than causation, although it is acting a bit like a self-fulfilling prophecy.
What are your predictions for next week, month. I am about to get in, and I am very excited, I just dont know what is the best time, tomorrow or for week or two, or to do it in parts?
Any thoughts on why this patter occurs 23-24 days before Chinese New Year ? Do they usually pass regulations on the start of the New Year or it's just the psychology of the investors ?
That's worth at least 200 Satoshis, @budz82 ;)
Excellent... Thank you and god bless you...
History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes.
Well played budz82, let's hope you're right.
I'll load up just to make sure it drops…
I like watching the order book for positions of intense concentrations of limit orders. The buy on the spike.
Be weary of comparing and "forcing" patterns with crypto charts.
The market is different every month, and the reasons for flash crashes are different every time. That's not to say the same types of events don't catalyze such crashes, just that the reasons behinds those events are different every time!
post your videos to dtube.
He will when YouTube no longer works, otherwise there doesn't seem to be enough incentive to mirror onto dtube. You'd have to make the case that he would benefit greatly from doing so.
I literally can't right now without a bit of hassle.
Similar fall last Jan. with some trend differences:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@ka82/comparison-of-bitcoin-price-trend-dec-to-jan-in-2016-2017-and-2018
Everybody's talking doom on the threads, so this is what we might call a "Warren Buffet Situation" - time to buy.
What fools! You'd think they learned by now. However, today's price compared to the price when the futures markets got in makes me giddy just thinking about what must be going through their minds.
That might be true if cryptoassets were fundamentally undervalued, but since that's not how they're priced, we have no idea whether to be fearful or greedy.
Totals ;p
What we are seeing is a short squeeze power move, weak hands need not apply!
Yep - how I tend to see these types of events.
I completely agree. Price of BTC is like rollercoaster, you only need to know if you are on top of the tracks or at the bottom. A lot of people got hyped when BTC was $19k+, and that was clearly the worst time to invest. That is why a lot of people are negative about Bitcoins and cryptovalutes in general.
Yes. resentment because they got caught on a bad FOMO run, and now they need to get back at SOMETHING to work off their auto-aggression - that something is Bitcoin, so Bitcoin is being punished right now, for non-deliverance ;)
Historically bitcoin has reached the 100 day moving average. Use that as a guideline!!!!!!
Can you explain a bit? Does that usually indicate a bounce?
In these bubbles you want to buy on the dips when it drops to the 100-day or 200-day moving average.
Trends tend to repeat themselves. Not to say that it is a guarantee but a very likely possibility that we will see price hit the 100 day MA and bounce back as shown in the above examples, ESPECIALLY since we haven't seen a dip to that yet ever since the "crash" from 19k USD.
I personally believe that the bubble will take a few years to pop. This is just dumb guessing, but I based that on the huge potential of this bubble.
Then internet bubble of 1999 reached 6 trillion dollars. This was United States ONLY bubble. Crypto are open to the world and some markets are getting crazy, especially in Asia. If coinbase and exchanges open the doors for the middle east, I believe it will get crazy too there. A worldwide bubble has at least 50x the potential of a US based bubble. Therefore 50 x 6 trillion = 300 trillion.
And it doesn't stop here. Internet bubble was still seen as 'stocks', not many people are familiar with stocks, some people didn't care about investing at the time. If I was in the US in 1999, I wouldn't have bought any internet stocks because I didn't look at markets or trading. However, cryptocurrencies brings a lot of people in, who would never have invested in traditional stocks. I am one of those people. I only invest now because I liked the idea of bitcoin a few years ago, and this is what brought me in. I see legions of 18-20 year olds who are rushing into cryptos. I don't think it would have been the same for internet stocks.
That said, the crypto bubble has even more potential. Will it go to 500 trillion? More? In any case, it's going to be huge gains if the coins we picked don't die.
I don't really think it's that fair of a comparison though - A lot more capital and liquidity in stock markets. Crypto is still too wild west for it to have such insane amounts of capital. We'll see though, should be interesting. I agree we're not at the end yet.
Thanks for the post!
I haven't been this excited for a long time. Ready to pick ore btc up somewhere under 10000.
It has been interesting to see all this activity during the last few weeks with alts, but it will be more interesting to see what comes of the new coins that have gained dominance now that the market has turned, it might tell us if they are truly going to be around for very long.
I think the communities that react the least to this type of event might be some of the same ones that wil be around the longest.
Something to keep an eye out for.
I definitely noticed that as well. The highest quality names in my crypto portfolio are down the least or even up vs BTC. Mid-level names are down 10% vs BTC. The junkiest low-priced crap that I was fortunate enough to jettison last week is down 20-30% vs BTC in the last day or two.