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RE: Bitcoin's Scaling Debate - My money is on Segwit
There is no way the chain is going to hard-fork because of SegWit. None of the parties are gaining anything from that. Those are some smart people, they won't gamble with Bitcoin split.
With current amount of transactions per day, we don't need bigger blocks. I know that in the New York Agreement they agreed to 2Mb blocks in 6 months after SegWit is activated. But than again it requires a hard-fork. So I can see many ditching NYA if the 2Mb blocks are not a necessity by than.
Hopefully sanity prevails - a fork will cause chaos - replay attacks, confirmation delays etc. and surely cut into BTC's price.
However, we cant ignore the threats from roger ver, visaBTC etc. They control a sizeable portion of hashing power. Not having to pay mining fees, bonuses etc . will likely attract some.