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RE: Attempt to calculate how much of bitcoin transactions are speculative

in #bitcoin7 years ago

Very interesting. Is this 75% of the market cap is devoted to speculation or 75% of transactions?

If the latter I'd like to respectfully disagree :-) Only 75% of transactions going to speculation sounds really low. Consider that the velocity of trading might be 365 (the currency changes hands daily) while the velocity of daily use currencies like USD is typically 5 (changes hands only 5 times per year).

Let's look at this another way: From Bitpay they say that they are doing $1B in transactions per year, with a velocity of 5 means they are only moving around $200M worth of bitcoin (in market cap), about 0.1% of market cap. Their daily volume is $3M which is only 0.05% of the $6B daily volume, assuming bitpay accounts for 1/100th of non-speculative transactions, only 5% of daily transactions are non-speculative and I don't think there are 100 Bitpay-like companies out there. 5% of transaction value being non-speculative sounds like the higher end of the spectrum.

What do you think?