How To Grow Independent On Prophets

in #bitcoin5 years ago (edited)

pfg5ewkfbi.jpg (taken with Leica M10-P)

With the return of the bulls, we also see the proliferation of prophets; returning ones who have hidden in a cave since early 2018, and new ones who understand enough about crypto to make predictions but have yet to discover the full complexity of this new market and its inherent unpredictability.

In his enlightening book Antifragile Nicholas Nassim Taleb explains that to become antifragile (people who have not yet read the book would use robust instead) one has to become independent on all aspects one cannot control. Design a plan which does not need any predictions. To survive, one must eliminate any strategy that bears the risk of ruin.

Do you think anybody knows the price of Bitcoin one, two, or five years from now? Of course not. However, the price will undoubtedly fall onto a few of the thousands of predictions that are published these days, thereby giving birth to a random bunch of new prophets.

Taleb writes, "There are ample empirical findings to the effect that providing someone with a random numerical forecast increases his risk-taking, even if the person knows the projections are random." I have witnessed this first-hand a few times.

What Antifragile suggests is to design a strategy for life (or investments) which avoids ruin above all things. If you manage to stay in the game long enough, you have the opportunity to overcome setbacks and succeed.

Any step to get out of debt is helpful in this respect. Concerning profits that have been reaped by accepting potentially ruinous risks, Taleb quotes Seneca with "He is in debt, whether he borrowed from another person or from fortune."

To summarize the above: Don't hope! Try to do better.

(I highly recommend the above-cited book to anyone who wishes to strengthen his or her decision-making.)

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We do not have fund to invest in crypto, the little we have, we invest in the lives of these little children, we strongly believe in their future, what we do on Steem blockchain is that we’re trying to socialize them to the outer world believing that blockchain will help in healing our world from many diversity of man made social enslavement.

Thanks for your support @mariusfebruary, we’ve followed you for a while now, observing your personality and willingness to support Steem blockchain.

Dear @mariusfebruary Well, I must definitely read that book every literary resource that helps me to better understand what is worth reading, thanks to the recommendation. Now we must also expect the behavior of that run and it will not be in the short term that the results could be seen, I believe that it must be a medium term, in the short term there may be a lot of execration in that run. I think we should wait, (it's my point of view.)

Hi, @mariusfebruary!

Antifragile sounds like a phrase we usually say around here: What doesn't kill you, strengthens you.

Thanks for sharing

Exist only one guy who knows all the predictions about Bitcoin, This guy is Satoshi Nakamoto.. The only huge thing is that nobody knows him, maybe it is a group of people.. huge dilemma..!!!

Everyone in this is world just pretend that they know everything about Bitcoin, but seriously it is not true..!!

Everything is really interesting because nobody knows what will happen at the end..!!

Amazing don’t you think my friend @mariusfebruary ..??

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Dear @mariusfebruary
Well, I must definitely read that book
We will wait for your reading, I love the picture you placed. It is very difficult to prevent the price of these coins, they go up and down, but we are still reading and writing here.

mariusfebruary you were born in February that's why the nick, I was born in February

This sorta antifragile mindset has been by -far- the most difficult thing to achieve as a musician with two decades in the game. A huge part of me getting involved with Steem and blockchain based music outlets has been in the spirit of monetizing the process....effectively “preventing ruin” by virtue of making money no matter which project I’m on (or how little it pays!)

It is easy to romanticize throwing it all away and moving to a larger market but the work I’m putting in now will hopefully accomplish that task in the end....without becoming destroyed by the day to day of keeping the water and power on.

Woo friend @mariusfebruary very ben analyze the situation, thanks for sharing.

To summarize the above: Do not hope! Try to do better.

This would be something like diversifying the economy or investments?

Certainly there are many people with their hopes placed on cryptography, many also with very large investments. The cryptography arrived, broke into the economy brought many benefits and profits but became a bit like uncontrollable and unpredictable.

We hope that the adoption will stabilize and grow, but since we do not know the future, it is best to make sure by another means.

Very good thanks.

returning ones who have hidden in a cave since early 2018, and new ones who understand enough about crypto to make predictions but have yet to discover the full complexity of this new market and its inherent unpredictability.

Yes, two completely different sets of people. I started in early 2018 but never hid in the cave, so to speak.

It's still too complicated yet for mass adaption, and has too many hoops to jump through.

The first lot of 'hiders' will be fine though, until the bears come back.

Nice photo! Wow! My dream camera Leica!
I don’t believe in Prophets! They can make mistakes!

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The concept of becoming antifragile is really thought provoking. I am thinking about it and how I can develop it, I will read that book you have suggested.

My boyfriend is antifragile person, a total nutshell but I am very fragile persons, always getting thrown in the air easily.

This quality is one to develop for sure.
What about you, are you antifragile? upto some degree?