RE: On Capitulation and Bitcoin's Bloody Black Friday Weekend
thanks for sharing your assessment of situation and interesting info like that 14 stages of investors emotions...
IMO "Capitulation" is just some fancy word, a gimmick more like. :)
I mean, the whole thing about so called "Crypto Bubble" (or a Bitcoin bubble) is in itself a huge Bubble, i.e. blown out of proportions!
by those very institutional guys (such as Jamie Demon) who keep generating the FUD about Crypto in MSM, while at the same time buying Crypto OTC. LOL
to elaborate a bit more: at the pick of Bitcoin ATH, the WHOLE entire Crypto Total Market Capital was like what, just about half trillion USD?
which is insignificant even comparing to the daily trade volumes on Forex, as I recall (over $5trln ?)
and now that Total Capital has dropped to almost $100blns according to CMC? (alright, at $122bln approx. at the moment)
that's ALL the Cryptos together! :D
BTC at around $66bln LOL !!!
so, I mean, "Capitulation" I think is more like sort of NLP word used by some tricksters, for their own agenda and tricks (FUD / FOMO etc)
so far in fact Cryptos performing a lot better than some other assets and commodities - should not forget that! :)
as well as the fact that a lot of other markets are in downturn.
comparing to which Cryptos are not so bad at all.
personally I tend to agree with those who opine that this whole thing is mostly artificially FUDded, for the ulterior motives of those very institutional investors who force "weak hands" to sell off, to be able to buy off them whatever they sell in their desperation.
although another considerable partial reason: all those complications, restrictions, regulations... CBDCs, stablecoins, etc... advent of "crypto-fiat"... it won't be a surprise if quite sooner rather than later Cryptos would be if not entirely outlawed, then very hard to obtain and all those who were into it - would be sort of "encouraged" or lured or "forced" into all those "institutional" and "corporate" digital tokens, "crypto-llike".
but apparently there are still some very staunch "strong hands", aka stubborn HODLers! who do not give up so easily and neither are being easily fooled by some FUD and fancy gimmicks (as "Capitulation"). that I suppose one of main reasons why Bitcoin is still showing certain support levels and not drops to $2000 or $1000 as many predict or wish it would... or not as fast as they have expected...
Really happy to have inspired you to write so much here. And thanks for sharing!
I agree with much of what you said, though "capitulation" to me is psych vocabulary (ok, you can call it psychobabble if u want!) that helps us to understand our emotions better. When we are going through it, we need to understand that emotion and put a name on it so we can remember it... And use THAT to be a better investor!
I don't think we'll ever know why this knife is falling right now, though the fact that it's a holiday weekend, that other markets all around the world are weakening - oil, non-USD fiat, stock markets everywhere, etc., and also I still think old CSW is up to something - he won't just go that soundly into this sweet night. All that and more seem like decent reasons for us to be down a lot. But in the end, who knows? And it doesn't matter, in the long run at least.
It'll be a helluva case study one way or another!