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RE: Steem - An Honest Look Inside
Steem has too many sellers and not many reasons to attract buyers. The biggest seller being steemit. This continues to drive down the price. As the price drops investors are harder to attract and it gets into a negative spiral.
We see this play out as steem is almost falling outside the top 60 on coinmarketcap.
That's partly because new crypto projects keep cropping up all the time. People tend to have short memories. We are still over 50% up from the December bottom of about 20 cents. Bitcoin has gone up by about the same percentage since then.
I agree new entrants is another factor. But it can't be the only reason as other projects have managed to hold onto their market positions better
Some have, some haven't. It's mostly random noise. The day-to-day or even month-to-month fluctuations in the market caps of crypto projects are almost entirely meaningless. There is little to no information in the price action. Investors, or rather speculators, are like flocks of birds or schools of fish, mindlessly and chaotically chasing after whatever profits they think they can get.
STEEM is at about 31 cents right now. Does that mean Steem is now almost 50% less valuable than it was about a month ago? Of course not. Don't pay attention to short term price fluctuations. It's just flies buzzing. There is no information in it.
I agree short term market gyrations are not a true indicator of value, but how long is long term? Steem has fallen from top 20 all the way down to number 60.
I am not saying this means steem should be abandoned and it's dead. But I think it's fair to ask the question of its below market performance.
I think the poor long-term market performance of STEEM relative to BTC is because Steemit Inc overpromised and underdelivered for a couple of long years. It was terrible.
Steem is a project of many contradictions. It's got the most users and the most traffic. But its public image is very poor owing to how it got started and how many of the early 2016'ers were totally spoiled by the massive rewards. When they rage quit as their rewards naturally plummeted after the totally unsustainable once-in-a-lifetime type of lucky strike of a start, these spoiled children went on to badmouth Steem everywhere in the cryptosphere.
I think we saw STEEM bottoming out last Christmas, and if it's any consolation, the last bottom was a higher low than the one prior to that which was 7 cents in March 2017. At last, we have MIRA. We already have Steem-Engine powered tokens but Steemit Inc will now get to work making SMTs a reality at last. With MIRA and SMTs in place, development will be more app centric and the troubled early stages of Steem will hopefully be a distant memory fading away.
We're only higher from a USD point-of-view, because BTC is at ~6000 USD, instead of ~3200 USD. When comparing Steem to BTC, we've lost a lot of value.
Yeah, it's true that BTC has gained relatively more since the December lows. However, it would've been a different story a month ago when STEEM was about 52 cents and BTC was about 5200 USD. There is very little useful information to short term price action.
Yes BUT perspective..
I share this with you because I am grateful for your contribution to the community. It is important.
Alts are showing high volume but near the lows of this cycle which is also its longest bear market period, 479 days. Looks like in past cycles it was also always darkest before the turn. What do you see?
I added the bitcoin halving periods to the chart above which only goes back to 2013 meaning only the 2016 halving is able to be included. The 2012 falls several months short. It took about six months after the 2016 halving for alts to start their bull run.
Alts should have their time right around that time period which is about 6 months after the halving. Steem should be appreciating in satoshi valuation around this time.
Makes sense. The price of Bitcoin brings many new people into the space. They think bitcoin is too expensive and start speculating on alts.
Correct! And not enough reasons for people to keep their Steem on this platform, instead of selling it. It's all about incentives.
Exactly. We need more reasons for people to power up, perhaps creating more utility and benefits for holding SP. eg. Holding SP gives you airdrops, access to features/services on Steem, especially when SMTs and Communities come out, and maybe other perks.
We need RC delegation markets. That will enable new users to get the resources they need to utilize the site while SP holders can access the value of their resource.
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