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RE: Calling the peak. Expected daily STEEM production probably peaked about 2 months ago
I suspect that the witnesses will eventually decide to start issuing SBD interest
Do you think that this will happen - is it being discussed? Presumably the objective is to move funds from voting bots into a more profitable model?
With the change in direction, the only thing I'm fairly confident about is that the behavioral dynamics in the next 8 years are likely to be somewhat different from the first 8.
Hopefully a shift away from contests 😉
I think it will happen, eventually, but not any time soon. I'm not aware of any discussions on the topic. That's just me speculating.
When I look at that curve and see that witness rewards will drop from ~8,900 per day now to ~2,100 per day in 2037, it makes me think that the witnesses will want to explore interest payments as a possibility to increase their daily rewards starting in something like 2-6 years from now (unless the price of STEEM goes up enough to compensate for the reduction. But if that happens, the daily virtual supply - and therefore daily rewards - will go down even further, so the STEEM price would need to go up dramatically to sustain their current level of income).
Maybe. If contests are mainly a distribution mechanism, there will be progressively less to distribute. OTOH, it also makes it harder to reward the authors who produce attractive content, too. I have a hard time imagining how the decline will play out with content producers, investors, and curators. I guess this also depends a lot on how the STEEM price moves.
Consequences followed by more consequences... followed by even more consequences 🙂