The New Year’s Eve analysis will take a look especially at what awaits us in 2019. But we will also not avoid evaluating. And because year is a long time, we will use week chart (one candle is one week), so do not expect forecast for the upcoming week as usual.

A few words to 2018

When I was asked in the Parallel Polis in December what will be the development in 2018, I was probably the only one who predicted that a bear will visit us. When somewhere hype occurs, I usually stand against it. I deliberately always go against fashion trends. And at the end of 2017, the hype was really huge. Bitcoins were discussed everywhere, even on portals for mums. The end of growth was the question of “when” and not “whether” and the higher the price of Bitcoin was, the more likely it was that a break will occur. The break came in December 18th, but many people noticed in the New Year.

Even before Christmas 2017, I had a conversation with a person who had invested in BTC using a loan. And he made a profit. But instead of using the profit to repay the loan, he planned to raise the loan 5 times. I do not know if he did it or not. At the Christmas party of an unnamed company, we talked about how ordinary people take cash there to buy Ethereum for it. And when my wife told me that her colleague at work discuss it, it was clear to me that we were at the top.

And remember the ridiculously high fees. They even caused the development of the Lightning Network to speed up. The irony, however, is that at a time when the development of LN network approached the final stage, the fees were again negligible.

What may happen in 2019 for Bitcoin?

The whole year 2018 was bad for crypto. Bitcoin – compared to ATH – fell down by 84%. Everyone who bought at the end of 2017 is probably not happy. On the graph, I drew a comparison with the development in 2014 and it is quite easy to see that it is relatively similar. There is no summer arc that would pump the price to 13000 USD, but it basically corresponds, and it tell us what can be expected in 2019.

First, in January, I expect another drop. From the previous analysis, I predicted a growth to 4400 USD, but it has not yet happened and I do not believe in it so much now. The market is weak for such growth, so I think the next drop will come. We could look down to 2000 USD, but only for a short period of time. Then I expect an accumulation between the prices of 3000 – 5000 USD. And in that spirit, it should be the case for the whole year 2019.

At the end of 2019, I think the price can be somewhere around 9000 – 10 000 USD.

Recommendation for 2019: I expect the accumulation pattern. At prices below 3500 USD I would buy, and at prices above 4000 I would sell.